Department of Forensic Medicine, University of Helsinki and National Institute for Health and Welfare, Kytösuontie 11, 00300, Helsinki, Finland.
Department of Oral and Maxillofacial Diseases, University of Helsinki and Helsinki University Hospital, Kytösuontie 9, 00014, Helsinki, Finland.
Int J Legal Med. 2019 Jul;133(4):1207-1215. doi: 10.1007/s00414-019-02053-w. Epub 2019 Apr 16.
Estimation of an individual's age has important applications in forensics. In young individuals, it often relies on separate evaluations of permanent teeth (PT) and third molars (TM) development. Here, we analysed the age prediction performance of combined information from PT and TM in an unusual sample of healthy Somalis, born and living in Finland. PT development was staged according to Demirjian et al. (Hum Biol, 1973) and TM development according to Köhler et al. (Ann Anat, 1994), using panoramic radiographs from 803 subjects (397 males, 406 females) aged 3-23 years. A sex-specific Bayesian age-estimation model for the multivariate distribution of the stages conditional on age was fitted on PT, TM and PT and TM combined. The age-estimation performances were validated and quantified. The approach combining PT and TM only overestimated age with an ME of - 0.031 years in males and - 0.011 years in females, indicating the best age prediction performance.
个体年龄的估计在法医学中有重要的应用。在年轻人中，通常依赖于对恒牙（PT）和第三磨牙（TM）发育的单独评估。在这里，我们分析了来自 PT 和 TM 的联合信息在一个不寻常的芬兰出生和生活的健康索马里人样本中的年龄预测性能。PT 发育根据 Demirjian 等人进行分期（Hum Biol，1973），TM 发育根据 Köhler 等人进行分期（Ann Anat，1994），使用来自 803 名 3-23 岁受试者的全景 X 光片（397 名男性，406 名女性）。基于年龄对各阶段的多元分布进行条件推断的性别特异性贝叶斯年龄估计模型适用于 PT、TM 和 PT 和 TM 联合模型。对年龄估计性能进行了验证和量化。仅将 PT 和 TM 结合起来的方法仅在男性中高估年龄，ME 为-0.031 岁，在女性中高估年龄，ME 为-0.011 岁，表明具有最佳的年龄预测性能。
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