Sironi Emanuele, Taroni Franco, Baldinotti Claudio, Nardi Cosimo, Norelli Gian-Aristide, Gallidabino Matteo, Pinchi Vilma
School of Criminal Justice, Building Batochime, University of Lausanne, 1015, Lausanne-Dorigny, Switzerland.
Section of Forensic Medical Sciences, Department of Health Sciences, University of Florence, Largo Brambilla 3, 50134, Florence, Italy.
Int J Legal Med. 2018 Jul;132(4):1125-1138. doi: 10.1007/s00414-017-1733-0. Epub 2017 Nov 14.
The present study aimed to investigate the performance of a Bayesian method in the evaluation of dental age-related evidence collected by means of a geometrical approximation procedure of the pulp chamber volume. Measurement of this volume was based on three-dimensional cone beam computed tomography images.
The Bayesian method was applied by means of a probabilistic graphical model, namely a Bayesian network. Performance of that method was investigated in terms of accuracy and bias of the decisional outcomes. Influence of an informed elicitation of the prior belief of chronological age was also studied by means of a sensitivity analysis.
Outcomes in terms of accuracy were adequate with standard requirements for forensic adult age estimation. Findings also indicated that the Bayesian method does not show a particular tendency towards under- or overestimation of the age variable. Outcomes of the sensitivity analysis showed that results on estimation are improved with a ration elicitation of the prior probabilities of age.
本研究旨在探讨贝叶斯方法在评估通过牙髓腔体积几何近似程序收集的与牙龄相关证据时的性能。该体积的测量基于三维锥形束计算机断层扫描图像。
通过概率图形模型，即贝叶斯网络应用贝叶斯方法。从决策结果的准确性和偏差方面研究该方法的性能。还通过敏感性分析研究了对实足年龄先验信念的知情诱导的影响。
就准确性而言，结果符合法医成人年龄估计的标准要求。研究结果还表明，贝叶斯方法在年龄变量的低估或高估方面没有表现出特定倾向。敏感性分析结果表明，通过对年龄先验概率进行合理诱导，估计结果得到改善。
