Moon Soul Graduate School of Future Strategy, Korea Advanced Institute of Science & Technology (KAIST), Daejeon 34141, Korea.
Department of Public Administration & Graduate School of Governance, Sungkyunkwan University, Seoul 03063, Korea.
Int J Environ Res Public Health. 2019 Apr 23;16(8):1441. doi: 10.3390/ijerph16081441.
This study aims to identify the ideal types of energy transition of the thirty-five Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) countries and to explore their implications using the fuzzy-set ideal type analysis. It then anticipates the futures scenarios of OECD member countries towards energy transition by placing the ideal type results. In particular, looking at the possibility of the futures towards energy transition, this study attempts to set up the comprehensive measurement framework of energy transition embracing the three key drivers (energy system (E), energy citizenship (S), and digital technology (T)). As a result, the eight OECD countries, including Denmark (fuzzy score 0.889), UK (0.800), and Norway (0.788) belonging to Type 1 (EST) with the all high features of three key drivers, are expected to have 'Outlier (super-potent) Futures' of energy transition. The twelve countries of Type 2 (ESt), 3 (EsT), and 5 (eST) with two high features of three ones will belong to the 'Best (reformative) Futures'. The five countries of Type 4 (Est), 6 (eSt), and 7 (esT) with one high feature among three ones will be located in 'Business-As-Usual Futures'. Finally, the ten countries, including Hungary (fuzzy score 0.881), Greece (0.716), Israel (0.679) belonging to Type 8 (est) with all three low features, are expected to have 'Worst (declined) Futures' of energy transition.
本研究旨在确定三十五经济合作与发展组织（OECD）国家能源转型的理想类型，并利用模糊集理想类型分析探讨其影响。然后，通过放置理想类型的结果，预测 OECD 成员国在能源转型方面的未来情景。特别是，考虑到能源转型的未来可能性，本研究试图建立一个涵盖三个关键驱动因素（能源系统（E）、能源公民（S）和数字技术（T））的能源转型综合衡量框架。结果表明，丹麦（模糊得分 0.889）、英国（0.800）和挪威（0.788）等八个 OECD 国家属于具有三个关键驱动因素全部高特征的 1 型（EST），预计将拥有能源转型的“异常（超强）未来”。属于 2 型（ESt）、3 型（EsT）和 5 型（eST）的 12 个国家具有三个特征中的两个高特征，将属于“最佳（改革性）未来”。属于 4 型（Est）、6 型（eSt）和 7 型（esT）的五个国家具有三个特征中的一个高特征，将位于“常规业务未来”。最后，包括匈牙利（模糊得分 0.881）、希腊（0.716）和以色列（0.679）在内的十个国家属于具有三个特征全低特征的 8 型（est），预计将拥有能源转型的“最差（衰退）未来”。
