北非六国（埃及、利比亚、突尼斯、阿尔及利亚、摩洛哥和毛里塔尼亚）的可持续发展目标 3 与千年发展目标 4/5 死亡率健康目标间的差距分析。
A gap analysis of SDG 3 and MDG 4/5mortality health targets in the six Arabic countries of North Africa: Egypt, Libya, Tunisia, Algeria, Morocco, and Mauritania.
机构信息
a Institute of Social Medicine, Faculty of Medicine , University of Belgrade , Belgrade , Serbia.
b School of Public Health and Management, Faculty of Medicine , University of Belgrade , Belgrade , Serbia.
出版信息
Libyan J Med. 2019 Dec;14(1):1607698. doi: 10.1080/19932820.2019.1607698.
BACKGROUND
The United Nations Assembly adopted the Sustainable Development Goals to succeed the Millennium Development Goals in September 2015. From a European perspective, the development of health in the countries of North Africa are of special interest as a critical factor of overall social development in Europe's Mediterranean partners. In this paper, we address the mortality related SDG-3 targets, the likelihood to achieve them until 2030 and analyze how they are defined.
METHODS
We projected mortality trends from 2000-2015 to 2030, based on mortality estimates by inter-agency groups and the WHO in mother and child health, non-communicable diseases, and road traffic mortality. The gap analysis compares the time remaining until 2030 to the time needed to complete the target assuming a linear trend of the respective indicator. A delay of not more than 3.75 years is considered likely to achieve the target.
RESULTS
The SDG-3 targets of a Maternal Mortality Ratio below 70 per 100 000 live births and an U5MR below 25 per 1 000 live births have been achieved by Egypt, Libya, and Tunisia. Libya and Tunisia have also achieved the target for Newborn Mortality with Egypt close to achieving it as well. Algeria and Morocco are generally on track for most of the indicators, including deaths from non-communicable diseases and suicide rates; however, all of the countries are lagging when it comes to deadly Road Traffic Injuries for 2030. Mauritania is the only North African country which is not likely to reach the 2030 targets for any of the mortality indicators.
CONCLUSIONS
Although mortality statistics may be incomplete there is an impressive gradient from East to West showing Mauritania and deadly road traffic injuries as the most problematic areas. Given the large differences between countries baselines, we consider it preferable to set realistic targets to be achieved until 2030.
背景
联合国大会于 2015 年 9 月通过了可持续发展目标，以接替千年发展目标。从欧洲的角度来看，北非国家的卫生发展是欧洲地中海伙伴国整体社会发展的关键因素，特别值得关注。本文旨在探讨与可持续发展目标 3 相关的死亡率目标、到 2030 年实现这些目标的可能性，并分析这些目标的定义。
方法
我们根据机构间小组和世卫组织在母婴健康、非传染性疾病和道路交通死亡率方面的死亡率估计，对 2000-2015 年至 2030 年的死亡率趋势进行了预测。差距分析将到 2030 年剩余时间与假设各自指标呈线性趋势完成目标所需的时间进行了比较。不超过 3.75 年的延迟被认为有可能实现目标。
结果
埃及、利比亚和突尼斯已经实现了孕产妇死亡率低于每 10 万活产 70 例和婴儿死亡率低于每 1000 例的可持续发展目标 3 目标。利比亚和突尼斯也已经实现了新生儿死亡率的目标，而埃及也接近实现这一目标。阿尔及利亚和摩洛哥在大多数指标上都在正轨上，包括非传染性疾病死亡和自杀率；然而，所有国家在 2030 年致命道路交通事故方面都落后了。毛里塔尼亚是唯一一个不太可能实现任何死亡率指标 2030 年目标的北非国家。
结论
尽管死亡率统计数据可能不完整，但从东到西呈现出令人印象深刻的梯度，毛里塔尼亚和致命的道路交通事故是最成问题的领域。考虑到各国基线之间的巨大差异，我们认为最好设定到 2030 年实现的现实目标。
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