More Simon J
Centre for Veterinary Epidemiology and Risk Analysis, UCD School of Veterinary Medicine, University College Dublin, Belfield, Dublin, D04 W6F6 Ireland.
Ir Vet J. 2019 Apr 25;72:3. doi: 10.1186/s13620-019-0140-x. eCollection 2019.
There has been an ongoing decline in bovine tuberculosis (TB) in the Republic of Ireland, however, TB has yet to be eradicated. Further to a recent commitment by the Irish government to eradicate TB by 2030, this paper considers two questions, 'Can bovine TB be eradicated from the Republic of Ireland?' and 'Could this be achieved by 2030?', given current knowledge from research.
Until very recently, Ireland has lacked key tools required for eradication. This gap has substantially been filled with the national roll-out of badger vaccination. Nonetheless, there is robust evidence, drawn from general national research, international experiences, and results of a recent modelling study, to suggest that all current strategies plus badger vaccination will not be sufficient to successfully eradicate TB from Ireland by 2030. We face a critical decision point in the programme, specifically the scope and intensity of control measures from this point forward. Adequate information is available, both from research and international experience, to indicate that these additional measures should broadly focus on adequately addressing TB risks from wildlife, implementing additional risk-based cattle controls, and enhancing industry engagement. These three areas are considered in some detail.
Based on current knowledge, it will not be possible to eradicate TB by 2030 with current control strategies plus national badger vaccination. Additional measures will be needed if Ireland is to eradicate TB within a reasonable time frame. Decisions made now will have long-term implications both in terms of time-to-eradication and cumulative programme costs.
爱尔兰共和国的牛结核病（TB）发病率一直在持续下降，然而，结核病尚未根除。继爱尔兰政府最近承诺到2030年根除结核病之后，本文基于当前的研究知识，探讨两个问题：“爱尔兰共和国能否根除牛结核病？”以及“到2030年能否实现这一目标？”
直到最近，爱尔兰一直缺乏根除所需的关键工具。随着獾疫苗接种在全国范围内的推广，这一差距已基本得到填补。尽管如此，从国内一般研究、国际经验以及最近一项建模研究的结果来看，有充分证据表明，目前所有的策略加上獾疫苗接种，到2030年将不足以成功根除爱尔兰的结核病。我们在该计划中面临一个关键的决策点，特别是从现在起控制措施的范围和强度。从研究和国际经验中可以获得足够的信息，表明这些额外措施应大致集中在充分应对野生动物带来的结核病风险、实施基于风险的额外牛群控制措施以及加强行业参与。本文将对这三个领域进行详细探讨。
基于目前的知识，仅靠当前的控制策略加上全国性的獾疫苗接种，到2030年不可能根除结核病。如果爱尔兰要在合理的时间框架内根除结核病，将需要采取额外措施。现在做出的决策将对根除所需时间和累计计划成本产生长期影响。
