More Simon J, Houtsma Erik, Doyle Liam, McGrath Guy, Clegg Tracy A, de la Rua-Domenech Ricardo, Duignan Anthony, Blissitt Martyn J, Dunlop Mervyn, Schroeder Paul G, Pike Ryan, Upton Paul
Centre for Veterinary Epidemiology and Risk Analysis, UCD School of Veterinary Medicine, University College Dublin, Dublin, Ireland.
Veterinary Epidemiology Unit, Department of Agriculture, Environment and Rural Affairs, Belfast, Northern Ireland.
Vet Rec. 2018 Dec 15;183(23):717. doi: 10.1136/vr.104718. Epub 2018 Nov 28.
Extending on earlier work, trends in bovine tuberculosis (bTB) from 2003 to 2015 are described for the countries of the UK and the Republic of Ireland using standardised definitions and measures. Based on measures of animal and herd incidence, there remains a stable situation of extremely low prevalence in Scotland and the Low Risk Area of England, and a higher but ongoing reduction in prevalence in the Republic of Ireland. In Northern Ireland, there has been a rising bTB trend during 2010-2015, although not to levels experienced during 2002-2004. In the High Risk Area and Edge Area of England during 2010-2015, the rising bTB trends have continued but with some recent evidence of stabilisation. In Wales, prevalence has fallen subsequent to a peak in 2008. The paper considers country-level differences in the light of key policy changes, which are presented in detail. This work is unique, and will assist policymakers when critically evaluating policy options for effective control and eradication. Ongoing updates of this analysis would be useful, providing an evidence base for country-level comparison of bTB trends into the future. The use of multivariable analytical methods should be considered, but will rely on substantial sharing of raw data across the five countries.
在早期工作的基础上，运用标准化定义和测量方法，描述了2003年至2015年英国和爱尔兰共和国牛结核病（bTB）的流行趋势。根据动物和畜群发病率的测量结果，苏格兰和英格兰低风险地区的患病率仍然极低且保持稳定，爱尔兰共和国的患病率较高但仍在持续下降。在北爱尔兰，2010 - 2015年期间牛结核病呈上升趋势，尽管未达到2002 - 2004年期间的水平。在2010 - 2015年期间，英格兰高风险地区和边缘地区牛结核病的上升趋势仍在持续，但最近有一些稳定的迹象。在威尔士，患病率在2008年达到峰值后有所下降。本文结合关键政策变化，详细阐述了各国之间的差异。这项工作具有独特性，将有助于政策制定者在严格评估有效控制和根除的政策选项时提供参考。持续更新此分析将很有帮助，为未来各国牛结核病趋势的比较提供证据基础。应考虑使用多变量分析方法，但这将依赖于五个国家大量共享原始数据。
