More Simon J
Centre for Veterinary Epidemiology and Risk Analysis, UCD School of Veterinary Medicine, University College Dublin, Belfield, , Dublin, D04 W6F6, Ireland.
Ir Vet J. 2023 Jul 4;76(1):11. doi: 10.1186/s13620-023-00239-8.
In an earlier paper from 2019, this author concluded that successful eradication of bovine tuberculosis (bTB) from Ireland by 2030 would be unlikely, given control strategies in place at that time plus the addition of badger vaccination. He argued that additional measures will be needed, broadly focusing on bTB risks from wildlife, risk-based cattle controls, and industry commitment. This paper considers these points in further detail.
Ongoing monitoring of the badger vaccination programme (which is progressively being rolled out nationally) and associated research will be critical, with a focus both on programme inputs and outcomes. The direct contribution of cattle movements to bTB restrictions in Ireland has been evaluated. However, it is the indirect role of cattle movements in bTB restrictions that is likely of greater importance, particularly towards the latter phase of the eradication programme. In other national programmes, a range of risk-based approaches have been used to address the challenge of residual infection in cattle (that is, the presence of animals with persistent but undetected infection), and similar approaches are needed in Ireland. A number of authors have highlighted the critical importance of industry commitment to programme success, and the key role of programme governance to achieving this. In this commentary, the author briefly considers experiences from Australia and New Zealand in this regard. The author also reflects on the challenge of uncertainty in decision-making, the relevance to Ireland of lessons from other countries, and the potential contribution of new methodologies in support of the national programme.
'The tragedy of the horizon' was a term first used in the context of climate change, referring to the costs imposed on future generations that the current generation has no direct incentives to fix. This concept is equally relevant to bTB eradication in Ireland, where current decisions will have long-term consequences for future generations, including both the general public (through the Exchequer) and future Irish farmers.
在2019年的一篇早期论文中，本文作者得出结论，鉴于当时的控制策略以及獾疫苗接种的增加，到2030年在爱尔兰成功根除牛结核病（bTB）不太可能。他认为需要采取额外措施，主要集中在野生动物带来的bTB风险、基于风险的牛群控制以及行业承诺方面。本文将更详细地探讨这些要点。
对獾疫苗接种计划（该计划正在全国逐步推广）进行持续监测以及相关研究至关重要，重点是计划投入和成果。已经评估了牛只移动对爱尔兰bTB限制的直接影响。然而，牛只移动在bTB限制中的间接作用可能更为重要，特别是在根除计划的后期阶段。在其他国家计划中，已经采用了一系列基于风险的方法来应对牛群中残留感染的挑战（即存在持续但未被检测到感染的动物），爱尔兰也需要类似的方法。一些作者强调了行业承诺对计划成功的关键重要性，以及计划治理对实现这一目标的关键作用。在这篇评论中，作者简要考虑了澳大利亚和新西兰在这方面的经验。作者还思考了决策中不确定性的挑战、其他国家的经验教训与爱尔兰的相关性，以及新方法对支持国家计划的潜在贡献。
“地平线悲剧”一词最初是在气候变化背景下使用的，指的是当前这代人没有直接动力去解决而加诸后代的成本。这个概念与爱尔兰根除bTB同样相关，在爱尔兰，当前的决策将对后代产生长期影响，包括普通公众（通过财政）和未来的爱尔兰农民。
