College of Management, Shenzhen University, Nanhai Ave 3688, Shenzhen, 518060, Guangdong, China.
College of Finance, Guizhou University of Finance and Economics, Guiyang, Guizhou, China.
Environ Sci Pollut Res Int. 2019 Jun;26(18):18814-18824. doi: 10.1007/s11356-019-04950-4. Epub 2019 May 7.
Using the extended STIRPAT model, this research examines the influence of various factors on China carbon emission from 1971 to 2014, including total nuclear and alternative energy, total fossil energy, GDP per capita, total population, total urban population, merchandise trade of GDP, and services value added of GDP. Ridge regression was employed to perform the study. The research results show the positivity and significance of all factors on carbon emission. The estimated elastic coefficients reveal the most important factor influencing carbon emission is GDP per capita. Total fossil energy, total urban population, and nuclear energy of total energy use are also prominent influencing factors, while other factors such as value-added services of GDP and merchandise trade of GDP have less significant impacts on carbon emission in China. These findings of the research will be of great significance for China to control its carbon emission in the future and to mitigate global warming to some extent.
利用扩展的 STIRPAT 模型，本研究考察了 1971 年至 2014 年期间各种因素对中国碳排放的影响，包括核能和替代能源总量、化石能源总量、人均 GDP、总人口、城镇总人口、商品贸易 GDP 和服务业增加值 GDP。采用岭回归进行研究。研究结果表明，所有因素对碳排放的影响均为正且显著。估计的弹性系数表明，影响碳排放最重要的因素是人均 GDP。化石能源总量、城镇总人口和能源使用总量中的核能也是突出的影响因素，而 GDP 的服务业增加值和商品贸易等其他因素对中国的碳排放影响较小。本研究的这些发现对于中国未来控制碳排放、在一定程度上缓解全球变暖具有重要意义。
