College of Economics and Management, Henan Agricultural University, Zhengzhou, 450002, China.
School of Economics, Quaid I Azam University Islamabad, Islamabad, Pakistan.
Environ Sci Pollut Res Int. 2021 Apr;28(14):17319-17330. doi: 10.1007/s11356-020-12186-w. Epub 2021 Jan 4.
The accelerated urbanization in China was already coupled with a steadily increasing demand for energy usage. The present study major aim was to determine the asymmetric influence of urbanization, energy utilization, fossil fuel energy and CO emission on economic progress in China by using an annual time series data varies from 1975 to 2017. Stationarity amid variables was verified by applying the unit root tests, while non-linear autoregressive distributed lag (NARDL) bounds testing model was used to examine the asymmetric impacts on variables with short- and long-run dynamics. Outcomes revealed that via short-run estimates, the negative shocks of energy usage cause significantly to increase the economic efficiency, but positive shocks of energy utilization display the adverse linkage with the economic progress. Similarly, the negative shocks of GDP per capita growth demonstrate a substantial upsurge in the economic progress, and the positive shocks establish the adverse influence towards economic growth. Further, the outcomes of short-run dynamics also exposed the negative shocks of urbanization significantly affected the economic growth, but positive shocks exposed the adversative influence on economic growth. The outcomes display that fossil fuel energy consumption showed a constructive impact to economic progress, and additionally, the variable CO emission also uncovered a positive shocks having significant impact on economic progress. Furthermore, the outcomes of long-run analysis express that energy utilization has negative and positive shocks that expose the adverse influence on economic progress of China. GDP per capita growth exposed the constructive influence on the economic growth in both shocks. The negative and positive shocks of urbanization demonstrate a noteworthy influence on economic growth. The variable fossil fuel energy consumption also exposed an optimistic influence on economic progress, and finally the influence of CO emission on economic growth is insignificant as the results exposed. The reducing carbon alteration target aims to be reached for China, and in the next several decades, it will encourage the green energy options in order to decrease carbon dioxide emission to avoid environmental pollution by raising its energy intensity.
中国的快速城市化进程伴随着能源使用需求的持续增长。本研究的主要目的是通过使用 1975 年至 2017 年的年度时间序列数据,确定城市化、能源利用、化石燃料能源和 CO 排放对中国经济发展的不对称影响。通过单位根检验验证了变量的平稳性,而非线性自回归分布滞后(NARDL)边界检验模型则用于检验变量的短期和长期动态的不对称影响。结果表明,通过短期估计,能源使用的负冲击会显著增加经济效率,但能源利用的正冲击则显示出与经济发展的不利联系。同样,人均 GDP 增长的负冲击会显著促进经济发展,而正冲击则对经济增长产生不利影响。此外,短期动态的结果还表明,城市化的负冲击对经济增长有显著影响,而正冲击则对经济增长产生不利影响。结果表明,化石燃料能源消耗对经济发展有积极影响,此外,CO 排放变量也显示出正冲击对经济发展有显著影响。此外,长期分析的结果表明,能源利用对中国经济发展有负向和正向冲击,都显示出对经济发展的不利影响。人均 GDP 增长在两个冲击中都对经济增长表现出积极影响。城市化的负向和正向冲击对经济增长都有显著影响。化石燃料能源消耗也对经济发展表现出积极影响,最后,CO 排放对经济增长的影响并不显著,结果表明。中国的减少碳排放目标旨在实现,在未来几十年内,它将鼓励使用绿色能源选择,以降低二氧化碳排放,通过提高能源强度来避免环境污染。