Risk scoring system for predicting breast conservation after neoadjuvant chemotherapy.

We developed a risk scoring system (RSS) for predicting breast conservative surgery (BCS) in women receiving neoadjuvant chemotherapy(NAC) for breast cancer. BCS rate in the training set was 32.6%, associated with five variables: age < 50years, primary radiological tumor diameter < 60mm, absence of multifocality, absence of breast inflammation and hormone receptor status. These variables were assigned scores ranging from 0 to 9. The discrimination of the RSS was 0.78(95%CI 0.69-0.86) in the training set. The area under the curve of the receiver operating characteristics for predicting BCS after internal and external validation was 0.77(95%CI 0.68-0.85) and 0.75(95%CI 0.66-0.84), respectively.