软件应用程序配置文件：锚定乘法计算器-一种用于综合种群大小估计的贝叶斯工具。
Software Application Profile: The Anchored Multiplier calculator-a Bayesian tool to synthesize population size estimates.
机构信息
Center for AIDS Prevention Studies, Traineeship in AIDS Prevention Studies Fellowship Program, University of California San Francisco, San Francisco, CA, USA.
Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, University of California San Francisco, San Francisco, CA, USA.
出版信息
Int J Epidemiol. 2019 Dec 1;48(6):1744-1749. doi: 10.1093/ije/dyz101.
Estimating the number of people in hidden populations is needed for public health research, yet available methods produce highly variable and uncertain results. The Anchored Multiplier calculator uses a Bayesian framework to synthesize multiple population size estimates to generate a consensus estimate. Users submit point estimates and lower/upper bounds which are converted to beta probability distributions and combined to form a single posterior probability distribution. The Anchored Multiplier calculator is available as a web browser-based application. The software allows for unlimited empirical population size estimates to be submitted and combined according to Bayes Theorem to form a single estimate. The software returns output as a forest plot (to visually compare data inputs and the final Anchored Multiplier estimate) and a table that displays results as population percentages and counts. The web application 'Anchored Multiplier Calculator' is free software and is available at [http://globalhealthsciences.ucsf.edu/resources/tools] or directly at [http://anchoredmultiplier.ucsf.edu/].
估算隐蔽人群的数量是公共卫生研究所需的，但现有的方法产生的结果差异很大且不确定。锚定乘数计算器使用贝叶斯框架来综合多个人口规模估计值，以生成共识估计值。用户提交点估计值和下限/上限，这些值将转换为 beta 概率分布，并组合成单个后验概率分布。锚定乘数计算器可作为基于网络浏览器的应用程序使用。该软件允许根据贝叶斯定理提交和组合无限数量的经验人口规模估计值，以形成单个估计值。该软件返回的输出为森林图（直观地比较数据输入和最终的锚定乘数估计值）和一个表格，显示结果为人口百分比和计数。网络应用程序“锚定乘数计算器”是免费软件，可在[http://globalhealthsciences.ucsf.edu/resources/tools]上获得，也可直接在[http://anchoredmultiplier.ucsf.edu/]上获得。
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