利用捕获-再捕获模型评估加利福尼亚州阿拉米达县的 HIV 监测完整性。
Evaluating the Completeness of HIV Surveillance Using Capture-Recapture Models, Alameda County, California.
机构信息
University of California, Berkeley, Berkeley, USA.
University of California, San Francisco, Center for AIDS Prevention Studies/Prevention Research Center, 550 16th St., 3rd Floor, San Francisco, CA, 94158, USA.
出版信息
AIDS Behav. 2018 Jul;22(7):2248-2257. doi: 10.1007/s10461-017-1883-6.
HIV prevalence in Alameda County (including Oakland) is among the highest in California, yet the case registry may under-appreciate the full burden of disease. Using lists from health care facilities serving socioeconomically diverse populations and the HIV surveillance list, we applied capture-recapture methods to evaluate the completeness of the surveillance system by estimating the number of diagnosed people living with HIV and seeking care in Alameda County in 2013. Of the 5376 unique individuals reported from the lists, 397 were missing from the surveillance list. Models projected the total population size to be 5720 (95% CI 5587-6190), estimating the surveillance system as 87% complete. Subgroup analyses identified groups facing a disproportionate burden of HIV as more likely to be detected by the surveillance list. The Alameda County HIV surveillance system reports a high proportion of persons diagnosed with HIV within the jurisdiction. Capture-recapture analysis can help track progress towards maximizing engagement in HIV care.
阿拉米达县（包括奥克兰）的艾滋病毒流行率在加利福尼亚州是最高的之一，但病例登记可能低估了疾病的全部负担。我们使用为社会经济多样化人群服务的医疗设施名单和艾滋病毒监测名单，通过估计 2013 年在阿拉米达县居住并寻求治疗的艾滋病毒感染者人数，应用捕获-再捕获方法评估监测系统的完整性。在报告的 5376 个独特个体中，有 397 个未出现在监测名单中。模型预测总人口规模为 5720 人（95%CI5587-6190），估计监测系统的完成率为 87%。亚组分析确定了面临不成比例的艾滋病毒负担的群体更有可能被监测名单发现。阿拉米达县艾滋病毒监测系统报告了在该管辖区内诊断出的艾滋病毒感染者的高比例。捕获-再捕获分析有助于跟踪在最大限度地参与艾滋病毒治疗方面取得的进展。
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