Department of Social Work and Social Administration, The University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, China.
Int J Environ Res Public Health. 2019 Jun 2;16(11):1959. doi: 10.3390/ijerph16111959.
To assess the mechanism responsible for the improvement in life expectancy in Hong Kong over the past several decades, Arriaga's decomposition method was applied to quantify the influence of the age structure and the leading causes of death on the increase in life expectancy in Hong Kong from 1986 to 2015. Our results showed that, during the observed period, the major contribution to the improvement in life expectancy in Hong Kong was attributable to the older population for both males and females. Contributions of malignant neoplasms in the period of 1986-1995, 1996-2005 and 2006-2015 were 0.613, 0.279 and 0.887 years in males and 0.391, 0.312 and 0.226 years in females, respectively. For circulatory diseases, the corresponding figures were 1.452, 0.202 and 0.832 years in males and 0.675, 0.192 and 1.069 years in females, with the largest contribution also shifting to older ages. However, these positive contributions were partly offset by the negative contribution of pneumonia, especially among those at advanced ages. Furthermore, although the impact was limited, attention should also be paid to the prevalence of some chronic diseases among the younger age groups in recent years.
为了评估过去几十年香港预期寿命延长的原因，我们采用了 Arriaga 的分解方法，量化了人口年龄结构和主要死亡原因对 1986 年至 2015 年香港预期寿命增长的影响。结果表明，在观察期内，人口老龄化是导致香港男、女性预期寿命延长的主要原因。1986-1995 年、1996-2005 年和 2006-2015 年恶性肿瘤对男性预期寿命延长的贡献分别为 0.613 年、0.279 年和 0.887 年，对女性的贡献分别为 0.391 年、0.312 年和 0.226 年。对于循环系统疾病，男性的相应数据为 1.452 年、0.202 年和 0.832 年，女性的相应数据为 0.675 年、0.192 年和 1.069 年，主要贡献也转移到了更年长的年龄组。然而，肺炎的负面影响在一定程度上抵消了这些积极贡献，尤其是在高龄人群中。此外，尽管影响有限，但近年来应注意一些慢性病在年轻人群中的流行情况。
