Wang D Z, Zhang H, Zhang S, Sun K, Wang C, Wang Z, Song G D, Shen C F, Zheng W L, Jiang G H
Department of Non-Communicable Disease Control and Prevention, Tianjin Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Tianjin 300011, China.
Zhonghua Liu Xing Bing Xue Za Zhi. 2021 May 10;42(5):814-822. doi: 10.3760/cma.j.cn112338-20200717-00954.
To assess the trend and the factors responsible for the increase of life expectancy of residents in Tianjin over the past two decades. Abridged Life Table and Arriaga's decomposition method was applied to quantify the influence of the age structure and the leading causes of death on the increase of life expectancy of residents in Tianjin from 1999 to 2018. In the past 20 years, the life expectancy of residents in Tianjin increased by 4.97 years, the life expectancy of men and women increased by 4.11 years and 5.86 years, respectively. The decrease of mortality rate in 0-year-old group contributed 19.17% to the increase of the life expectancy, while the decrease of mortality rate in residents aged ≥55 years contributed more to the increase of life expectancy, with the cumulative contribution rate of 67.38%. The major contribution to the increase of life expectancy was the mortality reduction of cerebrovascular disease, respiratory disease, cardiovascular disease, perinatal diseases, congenital malformations and injury, with the contribution percentage of 27.27%, 21.37%, 15.76%, 12.22%, 6.44% and 4.86%, respectively. The increase of mortality of malignant tumor, injury and poisoning, diabetes and nervous system diseases and others had a negative effect on the increase of life expectancy of people aged ≥75 years. From 1999 to 2018, the life expectancy increased from 76.72 years to 81.46 years (=9.11, <0.001), the annual percent change (APC) was 0.58%. From 2011 to 2018, it was stable, ranging from 81.46 years to 81.69 years (=0.89, =0.387, APC=0.13%). From 1999 to 2018, the increase of life expectancy was attributed to the decrease of mortalities in infants and the elderly and the decrease of mortalities of cerebro-cardiovascular disease, respiratory disease, perinatal disease, congenital malformations and injury. However, these positive contributions were partly offset by the negative contribution of malignant tumor, injury, diabetes and nervous system disease in those aged ≥75 years. Comprehensive prevention and control of key diseases should be strengthened in key population in order to further improve the life expectancy of the population.
评估过去二十年天津居民预期寿命增长的趋势及影响因素。应用简略寿命表和阿利亚加分解法，量化1999年至2018年年龄结构和主要死因对天津居民预期寿命增长的影响。过去20年，天津居民预期寿命增加了4.97岁，男性和女性预期寿命分别增加了4.11岁和5.86岁。0岁组死亡率的下降对预期寿命增长的贡献率为19.17%，而≥55岁居民死亡率的下降对预期寿命增长的贡献更大，累计贡献率为67.38%。预期寿命增长的主要贡献来自脑血管病、呼吸系统疾病、心血管病、围产期疾病、先天性畸形和损伤死亡率的降低，贡献率分别为27.27%、21.37%、15.76%、12.22%、6.44%和4.86%。恶性肿瘤、损伤和中毒、糖尿病以及神经系统疾病等死亡率的上升对≥75岁人群预期寿命的增长产生了负面影响。1999年至2018年，预期寿命从76.72岁增至81.46岁（=9.11，<0.001），年变化百分比（APC）为0.58%。2011年至2018年，预期寿命稳定在81.46岁至81.69岁之间（=0.89，=0.387，APC=0.13%）。1999年至2018年，预期寿命的增长归因于婴儿和老年人死亡率的下降以及心脑血管病、呼吸系统疾病、围产期疾病、先天性畸形和损伤死亡率的下降。然而，这些积极贡献部分被≥75岁人群中恶性肿瘤、损伤、糖尿病和神经系统疾病的负面贡献所抵消。应加强对重点人群关键疾病的综合防控，以进一步提高人群预期寿命。
