Department of Forest, Rangeland, and Fire Sciences University of Idaho, Moscow, Idaho, United States of America.
PLoS One. 2019 Jun 7;14(6):e0217299. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0217299. eCollection 2019.
Avian cavity nesters (ACN) are viable indicators of forest structure, composition, and diversity. Utilizing these species responses in multi-disciplinary climate-avian-forest modeling can improve climate adaptive management. We propose a framework for integrating and evaluating climate-avian-forest models by linking two ACN niche models with a forest landscape model (FLM), LANDIS-II. The framework facilitates the selection of available ACN models for integration, evaluation of model transferability, and evaluation of successful integration of ACN models with a FLM. We found selecting a model for integration depended on its transferability to the study area (Northern Rockies Ecoregion of Idaho in the United States), which limited the species and model types available for transfer. However, transfer evaluation of the tested ACN models indicated a good fit for the study area. Several niche model variables (canopy cover, snag density, and forest cover type) were not directly informed by the LANDIS-II model, which required secondary modeling (Random Forest) to derive values from the FLM outputs. In instances where the Random Forest models performed with a moderate classification accuracy, the overall effect on niche predictions was negligible. Predictions based on LANDIS-II simulations performed similarly to predictions based on the niche model's original training input types. This supported the conclusion that the proposed framework is viable for informing avian niche models with FLM simulations. Even models that poorly approximate habitat suitability, due to the inherent constraints of predicting spatial niche use of irruptive species produced informative results by identifying areas of management focus. This is primarily because LANDIS-II estimates spatially explicit variables that were unavailable over large spatial extents from alternative datasets. Thus, without integration, one of the ACN niche models was not applicable to the study area. The framework will be useful for integrating avifauna niche and forest ecosystem models, which can inform management of contemporary and future landscapes under differing management and climate scenarios.
禽类洞穴筑巢者（ACN）是森林结构、组成和多样性的可行指标。在多学科气候-鸟类-森林建模中利用这些物种的反应可以改善气候适应性管理。我们提出了一个框架，通过将两个 ACN 生态位模型与森林景观模型（FLM）LANDIS-II 链接，来整合和评估气候-鸟类-森林模型。该框架有助于选择可用于整合的可用 ACN 模型，评估模型的可转移性，并评估 ACN 模型与 FLM 的成功整合。我们发现，选择一个模型进行整合取决于其对研究区域（美国北落基山脉生态区）的可转移性，这限制了可供转移的物种和模型类型。然而，对测试的 ACN 模型的转移评估表明，该模型非常适合研究区域。几个生态位模型变量（树冠覆盖、枯树密度和森林覆盖类型）不能直接由 LANDIS-II 模型提供，这需要二次建模（随机森林）从 FLM 输出中得出值。在随机森林模型表现出中等分类准确性的情况下，对生态位预测的总体影响可以忽略不计。基于 LANDIS-II 模拟的预测与基于生态位模型原始训练输入类型的预测相似。这支持了这样一个结论，即所提出的框架可用于通过 FLM 模拟为鸟类生态位模型提供信息。即使由于预测爆发物种空间生态位使用的固有限制，模型不能很好地近似栖息地适宜性，也能通过确定管理重点区域来提供有价值的结果。这主要是因为 LANDIS-II 估计了空间上明确的变量，而这些变量在替代数据集中无法在较大的空间范围内获得。因此，如果不进行整合，其中一个 ACN 生态位模型不适用于研究区域。该框架将有助于整合鸟类生态位和森林生态系统模型，这可以为不同管理和气候情景下的当代和未来景观的管理提供信息。
