Gurski K F
Department of Mathematics, Howard University, United States.
Infect Dis Model. 2019 May 16;4:142-160. doi: 10.1016/j.idm.2019.05.002. eCollection 2019.
Population models for sexually transmitted infections frequently use a transmission model that assumes an inherent partnership length of zero. However, in a population with long-term partnerships, the infection status of the partners, the length of the partnership, and the exclusivity of the partnership significantly affect the rate of infection. We develop an autonomous population model that can account for the possibilities of an infection from either a casual sexual partner or a longtime partner who was either infected at the start of the partnership or was newly infected. The impact of the long-term partnerships on the rate of infection is captured by calculating the expected values of the rate of infection from these extended contacts. We present a new method to evaluate partner acquisition rates for casual or long-term partnerships which produces in a more realistic number of lifetime sexual partners. Results include a SI model with different infectiousness levels for the transmission of HIV and HSV-2 with acute and chronic/latent infection stages for homogeneous (MSM) and heterogeneous (WSM-MSW) groups. The accompanying reproduction number and sensitivity studies highlight the impact of both casual and long-term partnerships on infection spread. We construct an autonomous set of equations that handle issues usually ignored by autonomous equations and handled only through simulations or in a non-autonomous form. The autonomous formulation of the model allows for simple numerical computations while incorporating a combination of random instantaneous contacts between individuals and prolonged contacts between specific individuals.
性传播感染的人群模型通常使用一种假设固有伙伴关系时长为零的传播模型。然而,在存在长期伙伴关系的人群中,伙伴的感染状况、伙伴关系的时长以及伙伴关系的排他性会显著影响感染率。我们开发了一个自主人群模型,该模型能够考虑到来自偶然性伙伴或长期伙伴感染的可能性,其中长期伙伴在伙伴关系开始时已被感染或新近被感染。通过计算这些延长接触的感染率期望值,可了解长期伙伴关系对感染率的影响。我们提出了一种新方法来评估偶然或长期伙伴关系的伙伴获得率,该方法得出的终身性伙伴数量更为现实。结果包括一个针对艾滋病毒和单纯疱疹病毒2传播的具有不同感染性水平的SI模型,该模型针对同质(男男性行为者)和异质(异性恋男性 - 异性恋女性)群体设置了急性和慢性/潜伏感染阶段。附带的繁殖数和敏感性研究突出了偶然和长期伙伴关系对感染传播的影响。我们构建了一组自主方程,处理了自主方程通常忽略且仅通过模拟或以非自主形式处理的问题。该模型的自主公式允许进行简单的数值计算,同时纳入了个体之间随机瞬时接触与特定个体之间长期接触的组合。