Kretzschmar Mirjam, Heijne Janneke C M
Julius Center for Health Sciences and Primary Care, University Medical Center Utrecht, The Netherlands.
Centre for Infectious Disease Control, National Institute for Public Health and the Environment (RIVM), Bilthoven, The Netherlands.
Infect Dis Model. 2017 Jul 25;2(3):368-378. doi: 10.1016/j.idm.2017.07.002. eCollection 2017 Aug.
For modelling sexually transmitted infections, duration of partnerships can strongly influence the transmission dynamics of the infection. If partnerships are monogamous, pairs of susceptible individuals are protected from becoming infected, while pairs of infected individuals delay onward transmission of the infection as long as they persist. In addition, for curable infections re-infection from an infected partner may occur. Furthermore, interventions based on contact tracing rely on the possibility of identifying and treating partners of infected individuals. To reflect these features in a mathematical model, pair formation models were introduced to mathematical epidemiology in the 1980's. They have since been developed into a widely used tool in modelling sexually transmitted infections and the impact of interventions. Here we give a basic introduction to the concepts of pair formation models for a susceptible-infected-susceptible (SIS) epidemic. We review some results and applications of pair formation models mainly in the context of chlamydia infection.
对于性传播感染的建模而言，伴侣关系的持续时间会对感染的传播动态产生强烈影响。如果伴侣关系是一夫一妻制，易感个体对会受到保护而不被感染，而感染个体对只要保持伴侣关系，就会延迟感染的进一步传播。此外，对于可治愈的感染，可能会出现来自感染伴侣的再次感染。此外，基于接触者追踪的干预措施依赖于识别和治疗感染个体的伴侣的可能性。为了在数学模型中反映这些特征，配对形成模型于20世纪80年代被引入数学流行病学。自那时起，它们已发展成为用于性传播感染建模以及干预措施影响评估的广泛使用的工具。在此，我们对易感-感染-易感（SIS）流行病的配对形成模型概念进行基本介绍。我们主要在衣原体感染的背景下回顾配对形成模型的一些结果和应用。
