School of Economics and Management, Beihang University, Beijing 100191, China.
College of Environmental Sciences and Engineering, Peking University, Beijing 100871, China.
Environ Int. 2019 Sep;130:104881. doi: 10.1016/j.envint.2019.05.075. Epub 2019 Jun 11.
Many studies have reported associations between air pollution and health impacts, but few studies have explicitly differentiated the economic effects of PM and ozone at China's regional level. This study compares the PM and ozone pollution-related health impacts based on an integrated approach. The research framework combines an air pollutant emission projection model (GAINS), an air quality model (GEOS-Chem), a health model using the latest exposure-response functions, medical prices and value of statistical life (VSL), and a general equilibrium model (CGE). Results show that eastern provinces in China encounter severer loss from PM and more benefit from mitigation policy, whereas the lower income western provinces encounter severer health impacts and economic burdens due to ozone pollution, and the impact in southern and central provinces is relatively lower. In 2030, without control policies, PM pollution could lead to losses of 2.0% in Gross Domestic Production (GDP), 210 billion Chinese Yuan (CNY) in health expenditure and a life loss of around 10,000 billion, while ozone pollution could contribute to GDP loss by 0.09% (equivalent to 78 billion CNY), 310 billion CNY in health expenditure, and a life loss of 2300 billion CNY (equivalent to 2.7% of GDP). By contrast, with control policies, the GDP and VSLs loss in 2030 attributable to ambient air pollution could be reduced significantly. We also find that the health and economic impacts of ozone pollution are significantly lower than PM, but are much more difficult to mitigate. The Chinese government should promote air pollution control policies that could jointly reduce PM and ozone pollution.
许多研究报告了空气污染与健康影响之间的关联，但很少有研究明确区分中国区域层面 PM 和臭氧的经济影响。本研究采用综合方法比较了 PM 和臭氧污染相关的健康影响。该研究框架结合了一个空气污染物排放预测模型（GAINS）、一个空气质量模型（GEOS-Chem）、一个使用最新暴露-反应函数、医疗价格和统计生命价值（VSL）的健康模型，以及一个一般均衡模型（CGE）。结果表明，中国东部省份面临更为严重的 PM 污染损失，并能从减排政策中获益更多，而西部低收入省份则因臭氧污染而面临更为严重的健康影响和经济负担，南部和中部省份的影响则相对较低。2030 年，如果没有控制政策，PM 污染可能导致国内生产总值（GDP）损失 2.0%，卫生支出 2100 亿元人民币，生命损失约 1 万亿，而臭氧污染可能导致 GDP 损失 0.09%（相当于 780 亿元人民币），卫生支出 3100 亿元人民币，生命损失 2300 亿元人民币（相当于 GDP 的 2.7%）。相比之下，通过控制政策，2030 年因环境空气污染导致的 GDP 和 VSL 损失可以显著减少。我们还发现，臭氧污染的健康和经济影响明显低于 PM，但更难缓解。中国政府应推动空气污染控制政策，以共同减少 PM 和臭氧污染。
