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中国吉林省 PM 和 O 污染所致健康风险和经济损失评估。

Estimation of health risk and economic loss attributable to PM and O pollution in Jilin Province, China.

机构信息

College of Atmospheric Sciences, Key Laboratory of Semi-Arid Climate Change, Ministry of Education, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou, 730000, China.

Meteorological Observatory, Liaoning Provincial Meteorological Bureau, Shenyang, 110000, China.

出版信息

Sci Rep. 2023 Oct 18;13(1):17717. doi: 10.1038/s41598-023-45062-x.

Abstract

Ambient pollutants, particularly fine particulate matter (PM) and ozone (O), pose significant risks to both public health and economic development. In recent years, PM concentration in China has decreased significantly, whereas that of O has increased rapidly, leading to considerable health risks. In this study, a generalized additive model was employed to establish the relationship of PM and O exposure with non-accidental mortality across 17 districts and counties in Jilin Province, China, over 2015-2016. The health burden and economic losses attributable to PM and O were assessed using high-resolution satellite and population data. According to the results, per 10 µg/m increase in PM and O concentrations related to an overall relative risk (95% confidence interval) of 1.004 (1.001-1.007) and 1.009 (1.005-1.012), respectively. In general, the spatial distribution of mortality and economic losses was uneven. Throughout the study period, a total of 23,051.274 mortalities and 27,825.015 million Chinese Yuan (CNY) in economic losses were attributed to O exposure, which considerably surpassing the 5,450.716 mortalities and 6,553,780 million CNY in economic losses attributed to PM exposure. The O-related health risks and economic losses increased by 3.75% and 9.3% from 2015 to 2016, while those linked to PM decreased by 23.33% and 18.7%. Sensitivity analysis results indicated that changes in pollutant concentrations were the major factors affecting mortality rather than baseline mortality and population.

摘要

环境污染物,特别是细颗粒物(PM)和臭氧(O),对公众健康和经济发展都构成了重大风险。近年来,中国的 PM 浓度显著下降,而 O 的浓度却迅速上升,导致了相当大的健康风险。本研究采用广义加性模型,建立了 2015-2016 年中国吉林省 17 个区、县的 PM 和 O 暴露与非意外死亡率之间的关系。利用高分辨率卫星和人口数据评估了 PM 和 O 造成的健康负担和经济损失。结果表明,PM 和 O 浓度每增加 10μg/m,与总体相对风险(95%置信区间)分别为 1.004(1.001-1.007)和 1.009(1.005-1.012)相关。总的来说,死亡率和经济损失的空间分布不均匀。在整个研究期间,O 暴露导致了 23051.274 人死亡和 27825.015 亿元人民币的经济损失,这大大超过了 PM 暴露导致的 5450.716 人死亡和 6553.780 亿元人民币的经济损失。O 相关的健康风险和经济损失从 2015 年到 2016 年分别增加了 3.75%和 9.3%,而与 PM 相关的风险则分别下降了 23.33%和 18.7%。敏感性分析结果表明,污染物浓度的变化是影响死亡率的主要因素,而不是基线死亡率和人口。

https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/55e4/10584970/8f6bc2fbad24/41598_2023_45062_Fig1_HTML.jpg

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