School of Environment, College of Engineering, University of Tehran, Tehran, Iran.
School of Environment, College of Engineering, University of Tehran, Tehran, Iran.
Environ Res. 2019 Sep;176:108547. doi: 10.1016/j.envres.2019.108547. Epub 2019 Jun 19.
Ambient air pollution represents one of the biggest environmental risks to health. In this study, we estimated the avoidable mortality burden attributable to ambient air pollution in Tehran, and derived the economic impact associated with these health effects. Using PM data from ground-level air pollution measurements in Tehran, we estimated PM exposure for 349 neighborhoods in Tehran, by the Environmental Benefits Mapping and Analysis Program (BenMAP-CE). We considered five scenarios related to PM levels: an increase to 35 μg/m; a reduction to 25 μg/m; a reduction to 15 μg/m; a reduction to 10 μg/m (the WHO's air quality guideline value); and a full roll-back, assuming a reduction to 2.4 μg/m. All scenarios used 2017 p.m. levels as a starting point. Using the concentration response function of the Global Exposure Mortality Model (GEMM), we estimated a total of 7146 (95% CI: 6596-7513) adult (age ≥25 years) deaths attributable to PM in 2017. The leading causes of death were ischemic heart disease (3437; 95% CI: 3315-3516), stroke (886; 95% CI: 693-1002), lower respiratory infections (531: 95% CI: 414-589), chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (364; 95% CI: 271-420), and lung cancer (274; 95% CI: 236-298). The estimated total annual economic benefit (2017) of reducing PM concentration levels to 2.4 μg/m was USD 0.591 (95% CI: 0.447-0.624) billion per year, using the value of a life year (VOLY) approach, and USD 2.894 (95% CI: 2.671-3.043) billion per year, using the value of a statistical life (VSL) approach.
大气污染是对健康的最大环境风险之一。在这项研究中，我们估计了德黑兰地区大气污染造成的可避免的死亡负担，并得出了与这些健康影响相关的经济影响。我们使用来自德黑兰地面空气污染测量的 PM 数据，通过环境效益映射和分析计划（BenMAP-CE）来估计德黑兰 349 个街区的 PM 暴露量。我们考虑了五个与 PM 水平有关的情景：增加到 35μg/m；减少到 25μg/m；减少到 15μg/m；减少到 10μg/m（世界卫生组织的空气质量指导值）；以及完全回滚，假设减少到 2.4μg/m。所有情景都以 2017 年的 PM 水平为起点。使用全球暴露死亡率模型（GEMM）的浓度反应函数，我们估计 2017 年总共有 7146 名（95%CI：6596-7513）成人（年龄≥25 岁）死于 PM。主要死亡原因是缺血性心脏病（3437；95%CI：3315-3516）、中风（886；95%CI：693-1002）、下呼吸道感染（531；95%CI：414-589）、慢性阻塞性肺疾病（364；95%CI：271-420）和肺癌（274；95%CI：236-298）。使用生命年（VOLY）方法，将 PM 浓度降低到 2.4μg/m 每年估计可带来 5.91 亿美元（95%CI：4.47-6.24 亿美元）的经济效益，使用统计学生命（VSL）方法则每年可带来 28.94 亿美元（95%CI：26.71-30.43 亿美元）的经济效益。
