International Food Policy Research Institute, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia.
University of Bonn, Bonn, Germany.
Planta. 2019 Sep;250(3):769-781. doi: 10.1007/s00425-019-03224-0. Epub 2019 Jul 3.
Despite the relatively little attention given to tef, the value chain is quickly transforming and is expected to further do so in the near future. Tef is called an "orphan" crop in Ethiopia as it receives relatively little attention from the Ethiopian government and from international donors. Given the low yields of tef compared to other crops, it is often viewed as a low-priority crop and relatively little is known about the value chain of tef. We fill some of this knowledge gap in this paper. We illustrate tef's importance in Ethiopia's food systems and the rapid changes upstream, midstream, and downstream in its value chain. We show that tef production and productivity is rapidly increasing and that tef markets are improving over time. More specifically, using a growth decomposition analysis, we find that while the expansion of land and labor use have been important sources of growth in tef production, the relative contributions of modern input use and agricultural extension have been increasing over time. We also show that tef has greater economic potential, with comparatively more of it consumed by the better-off segments of the population, indicating that its importance is likely to grow over time as income grows in the country. Using reasonable assumptions on income growth, urbanization, and commercialization, we estimate that national tef consumption and marketed output will increase by about 250 and 300%, respectively, over a 20-year period.
尽管特弗尔（tef）相对较少受到关注，但它的价值链正在迅速转型，并有望在不久的将来进一步转型。特弗尔在埃塞俄比亚被称为“孤儿”作物，因为它相对较少受到埃塞俄比亚政府和国际捐助者的关注。由于特弗尔的产量相对较低，与其他作物相比，它通常被视为低优先级作物，关于特弗尔的价值链知之甚少。我们在本文中填补了一些知识空白。我们说明了特弗尔在埃塞俄比亚粮食系统中的重要性，以及其价值链上游、中游和下游的快速变化。我们表明，特弗尔的生产和生产力正在迅速增长，其市场也在随着时间的推移而改善。更具体地说，使用增长分解分析，我们发现虽然土地和劳动力使用的扩大是特弗尔生产增长的重要来源，但现代投入使用和农业推广的相对贡献一直在随着时间的推移而增加。我们还表明，特弗尔具有更大的经济潜力，相对而言，较富裕阶层的人口消费更多的特弗尔，这表明随着国家收入的增长，其重要性可能会随着时间的推移而增加。根据对收入增长、城市化和商业化的合理假设，我们估计在 20 年内，全国特弗尔的消费和市场产出将分别增长约 250%和 300%。
