Delgado Christopher L
International Food Policy Research Institute, Washington, D.C. 20006, USA.
J Nutr. 2003 Nov;133(11 Suppl 2):3907S-3910S. doi: 10.1093/jn/133.11.3907S.
People in developing countries currently consume on average one-third the meat and one-quarter of the milk products per capita compared to the richer North, but this is changing rapidly. The amount of meat consumed in developing countries over the past has grown three times as much as it did in the developed countries. The Livestock Revolution is primarily driven by demand. Poor people everywhere are eating more animal products as their incomes rise above poverty level and as they become urbanized. By 2020, the share of developing countries in total world meat consumption will expand from 52% currently to 63%. By 2020, developing countries will consume 107 million metric tons (mmt) more meat and 177 mmt more milk than they did in 1996/1998, dwarfing developed-country increases of 19 mmt for meat and 32 mmt for milk. The projected increase in livestock production will require annual feed consumption of cereals to rise by nearly 300 mmt by 2020. Nonetheless, the inflation-adjusted prices of livestock and feed commodities are expected to fall marginally by 2020, compared to precipitous declines in the past 20 y. Structural change in the diets of billions of people is a primal force not easily reversed by governments. The incomes and nutrition of millions of rural poor in developing countries are improving. Yet in many cases these dietary changes also create serious environmental and health problems that require active policy involvement to prevent irreversible consequences.
与较富裕的北方国家相比,发展中国家目前人均肉类消费量仅为其三分之一,奶制品消费量仅为其四分之一,但这种情况正在迅速改变。过去,发展中国家的肉类消费量增长幅度是发达国家的三倍。畜牧业革命主要由需求驱动。各地的贫困人口随着收入超过贫困线并实现城市化,正在食用更多的动物产品。到2020年,发展中国家在世界肉类消费总量中的占比将从目前的52%扩大到63%。到2020年,发展中国家的肉类消费量将比1996/1998年增加1.07亿吨,奶制品消费量将增加1.77亿吨,使发达国家肉类增加1900万吨、奶制品增加3200万吨的增幅相形见绌。预计到2020年,畜牧业产量的增长将使谷物饲料的年消费量增加近3亿吨。尽管如此,与过去20年的急剧下降相比,预计到2020年,经通胀调整后的牲畜和饲料商品价格将略有下降。数十亿人的饮食结构变化是一股主要力量,政府不易扭转。发展中国家数百万农村贫困人口的收入和营养状况正在改善。然而,在许多情况下,这些饮食变化也会带来严重的环境和健康问题,需要积极的政策干预来防止不可逆转的后果。