Centre for Inflammation Research, The Queen's Medical Research Institute, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, UK.
Edinburgh IBD Unit, Western General Hospital, Royal Victoria Building, Edinburgh, UK.
Gut. 2019 Nov;68(11):1953-1960. doi: 10.1136/gutjnl-2019-318936. Epub 2019 Jul 11.
OBJECTIVE: IBD prevalence is estimated to be rising, but no detailed, recent UK data are available. The last reported prevalence estimate in the UK was 0.40% in 2003. We aimed to establish the current, and project future, prevalence in Lothian, Scotland. DESIGN: We conducted an all-age multiparameter search strategy using inpatient IBD international classification of disease (ICD-10) coding (K50/51)(1997-2018), IBD pathology coding (1990-2018), primary and secondary care prescribing data (2009-2018) and a paediatric registry, (1997-2018) to identify 'possible' IBD cases up to 31/08/2018. Diagnoses were manually confirmed through electronic health record review as per Lennard-Jones/Porto criteria. Autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) regression was applied to forecast prevalence to 01/08/2028. RESULTS: In total, 24 601 possible IBD cases were identified of which 10 499 were true positives. The point prevalence for IBD in Lothian on 31/08/2018 was 784/100 000 (UC 432/100 000, Crohn's disease 284/100 000 and IBD unclassified (IBDU) 68/100 000). Capture-recapture methods identified an additional 427 'missed' cases (95% CI 383 to 477) resulting in a 'true' prevalence of 832/100 000 (95% CI 827 to 837).Prevalence increased by 4.3% per year between 2008 and 2018 (95% CI +3.7 to +4.9%, p<0.0001). ARIMA modelling projected a point prevalence on 01/08/2028 of 1.02% (95% CI 0.97% to 1.07%) that will affect an estimated 1.53% (95% CI 1.37% to 1.69%) of those >80 years of age. CONCLUSIONS: We report a rigorously validated IBD cohort with all-age point prevalence on 31/08/2018 of 1 in 125, one of the highest worldwide.
目的:据估计,IBD 的患病率正在上升,但目前尚无英国的详细最新数据。英国最后一次报告的患病率估计是 2003 年的 0.40%。我们旨在确定苏格兰洛锡安区目前及未来的患病率。
设计:我们使用全年龄段多参数搜索策略,使用住院 IBD 国际疾病分类(ICD-10)编码(K50/51)(1997-2018 年)、IBD 病理学编码(1990-2018 年)、初级和二级保健处方数据(2009-2018 年)和儿科登记处(1997-2018 年),以确定截至 2018 年 8 月 31 日的“可能”IBD 病例。根据 Lennard-Jones/Porto 标准,通过电子健康记录审查手动确认诊断。应用自回归综合移动平均(ARIMA)回归预测 2028 年 8 月 1 日的患病率。
结果:总共确定了 24601 例可能的 IBD 病例,其中 10499 例为真阳性。2018 年 8 月 31 日,洛锡安区 IBD 的时点患病率为 784/100000(UC 432/100000,克罗恩病 284/100000,IBD 未分类(IBDU)68/100000)。捕获-再捕获方法确定了另外 427 例“遗漏”病例(95%CI 383 至 477),导致“真实”患病率为 832/100000(95%CI 827 至 837)。2008 年至 2018 年期间,患病率每年增加 4.3%(95%CI +3.7%至+4.9%,p<0.0001)。ARIMA 模型预测 2028 年 8 月 1 日的时点患病率为 1.02%(95%CI 0.97%至 1.07%),预计将影响 1.53%(95%CI 1.37%至 1.69%)的 80 岁以上人群。
结论:我们报告了一项经过严格验证的 IBD 队列,2018 年 8 月 31 日的全年龄段时点患病率为 1/125,为全球最高之一。
Inflamm Bowel Dis. 2006-10
J Pediatr Gastroenterol Nutr. 2020-10
Inflamm Bowel Dis. 2016-9
Eur J Gastroenterol Hepatol. 2001-12
Cell Commun Signal. 2025-7-26
Nat Rev Gastroenterol Hepatol. 2025-7-18
Front Microbiol. 2025-4-29
Gastroenterology. 2019-1-10
Front Immunol. 2018-1-10
J Crohns Colitis. 2016-10-20
World J Gastrointest Pharmacol Ther. 2016-2-6
Inflamm Bowel Dis. 2014-4
N Engl J Med. 2010-4-15