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苏格兰洛锡安区基于捕捉-再捕获法推算的 IBD 患病率。

IBD prevalence in Lothian, Scotland, derived by capture-recapture methodology.

机构信息

Centre for Inflammation Research, The Queen's Medical Research Institute, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, UK.

Edinburgh IBD Unit, Western General Hospital, Royal Victoria Building, Edinburgh, UK.

出版信息

Gut. 2019 Nov;68(11):1953-1960. doi: 10.1136/gutjnl-2019-318936. Epub 2019 Jul 11.


DOI:10.1136/gutjnl-2019-318936
PMID:31300515
原文链接:https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC6839733/
Abstract

OBJECTIVE: IBD prevalence is estimated to be rising, but no detailed, recent UK data are available. The last reported prevalence estimate in the UK was 0.40% in 2003. We aimed to establish the current, and project future, prevalence in Lothian, Scotland. DESIGN: We conducted an all-age multiparameter search strategy using inpatient IBD international classification of disease (ICD-10) coding (K50/51)(1997-2018), IBD pathology coding (1990-2018), primary and secondary care prescribing data (2009-2018) and a paediatric registry, (1997-2018) to identify 'possible' IBD cases up to 31/08/2018. Diagnoses were manually confirmed through electronic health record review as per Lennard-Jones/Porto criteria. Autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) regression was applied to forecast prevalence to 01/08/2028. RESULTS: In total, 24 601 possible IBD cases were identified of which 10 499 were true positives. The point prevalence for IBD in Lothian on 31/08/2018 was 784/100 000 (UC 432/100 000, Crohn's disease 284/100 000 and IBD unclassified (IBDU) 68/100 000). Capture-recapture methods identified an additional 427 'missed' cases (95% CI 383 to 477) resulting in a 'true' prevalence of 832/100 000 (95% CI 827 to 837).Prevalence increased by 4.3% per year between 2008 and 2018 (95% CI +3.7 to +4.9%, p<0.0001). ARIMA modelling projected a point prevalence on 01/08/2028 of 1.02% (95% CI 0.97% to 1.07%) that will affect an estimated 1.53% (95% CI 1.37% to 1.69%) of those >80 years of age. CONCLUSIONS: We report a rigorously validated IBD cohort with all-age point prevalence on 31/08/2018 of 1 in 125, one of the highest worldwide.

摘要

目的:据估计,IBD 的患病率正在上升,但目前尚无英国的详细最新数据。英国最后一次报告的患病率估计是 2003 年的 0.40%。我们旨在确定苏格兰洛锡安区目前及未来的患病率。

设计:我们使用全年龄段多参数搜索策略,使用住院 IBD 国际疾病分类(ICD-10)编码(K50/51)(1997-2018 年)、IBD 病理学编码(1990-2018 年)、初级和二级保健处方数据(2009-2018 年)和儿科登记处(1997-2018 年),以确定截至 2018 年 8 月 31 日的“可能”IBD 病例。根据 Lennard-Jones/Porto 标准,通过电子健康记录审查手动确认诊断。应用自回归综合移动平均(ARIMA)回归预测 2028 年 8 月 1 日的患病率。

结果:总共确定了 24601 例可能的 IBD 病例,其中 10499 例为真阳性。2018 年 8 月 31 日,洛锡安区 IBD 的时点患病率为 784/100000(UC 432/100000,克罗恩病 284/100000,IBD 未分类(IBDU)68/100000)。捕获-再捕获方法确定了另外 427 例“遗漏”病例(95%CI 383 至 477),导致“真实”患病率为 832/100000(95%CI 827 至 837)。2008 年至 2018 年期间,患病率每年增加 4.3%(95%CI +3.7%至+4.9%,p<0.0001)。ARIMA 模型预测 2028 年 8 月 1 日的时点患病率为 1.02%(95%CI 0.97%至 1.07%),预计将影响 1.53%(95%CI 1.37%至 1.69%)的 80 岁以上人群。

结论:我们报告了一项经过严格验证的 IBD 队列,2018 年 8 月 31 日的全年龄段时点患病率为 1/125,为全球最高之一。

https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/222d/6839733/b955eaf95763/gutjnl-2019-318936f05.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/222d/6839733/7143d4f8f575/gutjnl-2019-318936f01.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/222d/6839733/2aef0067c632/gutjnl-2019-318936f02.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/222d/6839733/23ee630e8441/gutjnl-2019-318936f03.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/222d/6839733/42e46f48eb1a/gutjnl-2019-318936f04.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/222d/6839733/b955eaf95763/gutjnl-2019-318936f05.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/222d/6839733/7143d4f8f575/gutjnl-2019-318936f01.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/222d/6839733/2aef0067c632/gutjnl-2019-318936f02.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/222d/6839733/23ee630e8441/gutjnl-2019-318936f03.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/222d/6839733/42e46f48eb1a/gutjnl-2019-318936f04.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/222d/6839733/b955eaf95763/gutjnl-2019-318936f05.jpg

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本文引用的文献

[1]
Past and Future Burden of Inflammatory Bowel Diseases Based on Modeling of Population-Based Data.

Gastroenterology. 2019-1-10

[2]
Immunosenescence and Inflamm-Aging As Two Sides of the Same Coin: Friends or Foes?

Front Immunol. 2018-1-10

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Gastroenterology. 2017-11-2

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Lancet. 2017-10-31

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