Zhang Yin, Chung Hsingwen, Fang Qi-Wen, Xu You-Ran, Zhang Yong-Jing, Nakajo Ko, Wong Ian Chi-Kei, Leung Wai-Keung, Qiu Hong, Li Xue
Department of Medicine, School of Clinical Medicine, Li Ka Shing Faculty of Medicine, The University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong 999077, China.
Centre for Safe Medication Practice and Research, Department of Pharmacology and Pharmacy, Li Ka Shing Faculty of Medicine, The University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong 999077, China.
World J Gastroenterol. 2025 May 14;31(18):105472. doi: 10.3748/wjg.v31.i18.105472.
The rising incidence of inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) globally has increased disease burden and economic impact. Gaps remain in understanding the IBD burden between Asian and Western populations.
To estimate the current and following 10-year prevalence and incidence of IBD in Hong Kong, Japan, and the United States.
Patients diagnosed with IBD were identified from a territory-wide electronic medical records database in Hong Kong (2003-2022, including all ages) and two large employment-based healthcare claims databases in Japan and the United States (2010-2022, including < 65 age). We used Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average models to predict prevalence and incidence from 2023 to 2032, stratified by disease subtype [ulcerative colitis (UC); Crohn's disease (CD)], sex, and age, with 95% prediction intervals (PIs). The forecasted annual average percentage change (AAPC) with 95% confidence intervals was calculated.
The age-standardized prevalence of IBD for 2032 is forecasted at 105.88 per 100000 in Hong Kong (95%PI: 83.01-128.75, AAPC: 5.85%), 645.79 in Japan (95%PI: 562.51-741.39, AAPC: 5.78%), and 629.85 in the United States (95%PI: 569.09-690.63, AAPC: 2.85%). Prevalence is estimated to rise most significantly among those under 18 in Japan and the United States. Over the next decade, the incidence of IBD is estimated to increase annually by 3.3% in Hong Kong with forecasted increases across all age groups (although the AAPC for each group is not statistically significant); by 2.88% in Japan with a significant rise in those under 18 and stability in 18-65; and remaining stable in the United States. By 2032, the prevalence of CD is estimated to surpass UC in Hong Kong and the United States, whereas UC will continue to be more prevalent in Japan. A higher prevalence and incidence of IBD is forecast for males in Hong Kong and Japan, whereas rates will be similar for both males and females in the United States.
The prevalence of IBD is forecasted to increase in Hong Kong, Japan, and the United States, while estimates of incidence vary. The forecasts show distinct patterns across disease subtype, sex, and age groups. Health systems will need to plan for the predicted increasing prevalence among different demographics.
全球范围内炎症性肠病（IBD）发病率的上升增加了疾病负担和经济影响。亚洲和西方人群在IBD负担的理解上仍存在差距。
估计中国香港、日本和美国IBD的当前及未来10年患病率和发病率。
从中国香港全地区电子病历数据库（2003 - 2022年，涵盖所有年龄段）以及日本和美国两个基于大型就业人群的医疗理赔数据库（2010 - 2022年，涵盖<65岁人群）中识别出IBD确诊患者。我们使用自回归积分滑动平均模型预测2023年至2032年的患病率和发病率，按疾病亚型[溃疡性结肠炎（UC）；克罗恩病（CD）]、性别和年龄分层，并给出95%预测区间（PI）。计算了具有95%置信区间的预测年度平均百分比变化（AAPC）。
预测到2032年，中国香港IBD的年龄标准化患病率为每10万人105.88例（95%PI：83.01 - 128.75，AAPC：5.85%），日本为645.79例（95%PI：562.51 - 741.39，AAPC：5.78%），美国为629.85例（95%PI：569.09 - 690.63，AAPC：2.85%）。预计日本和美国18岁以下人群的患病率上升最为显著。在接下来的十年中，预计中国香港IBD发病率每年将增加3.3%，所有年龄组均有预测增长（尽管每组的AAPC无统计学意义）；日本为2.88%，18岁以下人群显著上升，18 - 65岁人群稳定；美国则保持稳定。到2032年，预计中国香港和美国CD的患病率将超过UC，而UC在日本仍将更为普遍。预计中国香港和日本男性IBD的患病率和发病率更高，而美国男性和女性的发病率将相似。
预计中国香港、日本和美国IBD的患病率将上升，而发病率估计有所不同。预测结果显示了疾病亚型、性别和年龄组之间的不同模式。卫生系统需要针对不同人群中预计上升的患病率进行规划。
