Institute for Futures Studies, Stockholm, Sweden.
Centre for Cultural Evolution, Stockholm University, Stockholm, Sweden.
Nat Hum Behav. 2019 Sep;3(9):922-930. doi: 10.1038/s41562-019-0647-x. Epub 2019 Jul 15.
Liberals and conservatives often take opposing positions on moral issues. But what makes a moral position liberal or conservative? Why does public opinion tend to become more liberal over time? And why does public opinion change especially fast on certain issues, such as gay rights? We offer an explanation based on how different positions connect with different kinds of moral arguments. Based on a formal model of opinion dynamics, we predicted that positions better connected to harm and fairness arguments will be more popular among liberals and will become more popular over time among liberals and conservatives. Finally, the speed of this trend will be faster the better the position connects to harm and fairness arguments. These predictions all held with high accuracy in 44 years of polling on moral opinions. The model explains the connection between ideology and moral opinions, and generates precise predictions for future opinion change.
自由派和保守派在道德问题上常常持相反的立场。但是，是什么使一个道德立场具有自由派或保守派的特点呢？为什么随着时间的推移，公众意见往往变得更加自由？为什么公众意见在某些问题上变化特别快，比如同性恋权利？我们提供了一个基于不同立场与不同类型的道德论据的联系的解释。基于一个意见动态的正式模型，我们预测，与伤害和公平论据联系更紧密的立场将在自由派中更受欢迎，并且在自由派和保守派中随着时间的推移将变得更加受欢迎。最后，这种趋势的速度将越快，立场与伤害和公平论据的联系就越好。这些预测在 44 年的道德意见民意调查中都得到了高度准确的验证。该模型解释了意识形态和道德观点之间的联系，并为未来的观点变化提供了精确的预测。
