The risk of introduction of swine vesicular disease virus into Kenya via natural sausage casings imported from Italy.

Pig production in Kenya is hampered by seasonal markets. As an alternative outlet for the finished pigs, several value-added meat-processing firms have been established. Sausage, which is produced using casings derived from intestines of pigs, is one form of processed meats. Kenya imports several kgs of natural casings every year; and a recent concern is Swine vesicular disease virus (SVDV), which has never been reported in Kenya, might be introduced via natural casings imported from Italy. To determine conditions (with associated probabilities) that could lead to the introduction of SVDV, a quantitative risk assessment model was developed. Using Monte Carlo simulations at 10,000 iterations, the probability of introducing SVDV was estimated to be 1.9x10-8. Based on the suggested volume of import and mitigations used in the analysis, contaminated casings derived from an estimated 0.003 (Range = 8.1x10-8 - 0.08) infected pigs will be included in the consignment each year. The critical pathway analysis revealed that rigorous surveillance programs in Italy have a potential to dramatically reduce the risk of introducing SVDV into Kenya by this route.