1 Graduate School of International Resource Sciences, Akita University, Japan.
2 Faculty of Engineering Science, Akita University, Japan.
Waste Manag Res. 2019 Sep;37(9):898-905. doi: 10.1177/0734242X19861668. Epub 2019 Jul 18.
This paper aims to uncover the spatial distribution of waste mobile phones and perform a preliminary optimization of the location of waste mobile phone recycling centers in China. This study first selects the best-suited among the logistic, Gompertz, and Bass models to forecast the per capita holding quantity of mobile phones. Combined with the population projected by the GM(1,1) and logistic models, the spatial distribution of waste mobile phones is uncovered through the stock-based model. Finally, a mixed-integer programming model is established to optimize the location of recycling centers upon the spatial distribution of waste mobile phones. Accordingly, the logistic model is concluded as the best-suited in terms of forecasting the per capita holding quantity of mobile phones for all 31 provinces in mainland China. The spatial distribution of waste mobile phones indicates the largest number in Guangdong, Shandong, and Jiangsu while the fewest are in Xizang, Qinghai, and Ningxia, in 2016. Furthermore, a remarkable increase in waste mobile phones from 2016 to 2036 in Guangdong and Beijing is projected. The location planning study indicates that a total of 175 recycling centers will be required to cover all waste mobile phones in China in 2036. Guangdong, Beijing and Zhejiang are the top three provinces regarding the number of recycling centers, with 29, 12, and 11 centers, respectively. The authors also propose the effective promoting of waste mobile phone recycling through regional cooperation and the establishment of regional management centers. The results of this study are expected to benefit waste mobile phone recycling in China.
本文旨在揭示废弃手机的空间分布，并对中国废弃手机回收中心的位置进行初步优化。本研究首先选择最适合的逻辑斯蒂、龚珀兹和巴斯模型来预测人均手机持有量。结合 GM(1,1)和逻辑斯蒂模型预测的人口，通过存量模型揭示废弃手机的空间分布。最后，建立混合整数规划模型，根据废弃手机的空间分布优化回收中心的位置。因此，逻辑斯蒂模型被认为是预测中国大陆 31 个省份人均手机持有量的最佳模型。废弃手机的空间分布表明，广东、山东和江苏的数量最多，而西藏、青海和宁夏的数量最少，在 2016 年。此外，预计广东和北京的废弃手机数量将从 2016 年到 2036 年显著增加。选址研究表明，到 2036 年，中国共需要 175 个回收中心来覆盖所有废弃手机。广东、北京和浙江在回收中心数量方面位列前三，分别有 29、12 和 11 个中心。作者还提出了通过区域合作和建立区域管理中心来有效促进废弃手机回收的建议。本研究的结果有望有益于中国的废弃手机回收。
