Complex Systems Research Group, Faculty of Engineering, The University of Sydney, Sydney, NSW 2006, Australia.
Charles Perkins Centre, The University of Sydney, John Hopkins Drive, Camperdown, NSW 2006, Australia.
Int J Environ Res Public Health. 2019 Jul 11;16(14):2477. doi: 10.3390/ijerph16142477.
We present a series of SIR-network models, extended with a game-theoretic treatment of imitation dynamics which result from regular population mobility across residential and work areas and the ensuing interactions. Each considered SIR-network model captures a class of vaccination behaviours influenced by epidemic characteristics, interaction topology, and imitation dynamics. Our focus is the resultant vaccination coverage, produced under voluntary vaccination schemes, in response to these varying factors. Using the next generation matrix method, we analytically derive and compare expressions for the basic reproduction number R 0 for the proposed SIR-network models. Furthermore, we simulate the epidemic dynamics over time for the considered models, and show that if individuals are sufficiently responsive towards the changes in the disease prevalence, then the more expansive travelling patterns encourage convergence to the endemic, mixed equilibria. On the contrary, if individuals are insensitive to changes in the disease prevalence, we find that they tend to remain unvaccinated. Our results concur with earlier studies in showing that residents from highly connected residential areas are more likely to get vaccinated. We also show that the existence of the individuals committed to receiving vaccination reduces R 0 and delays the disease prevalence, and thus is essential to containing epidemics.
我们提出了一系列 SIR 网络模型,并对模仿动态进行了博弈论处理,模仿动态是由居住和工作区域之间的常规人口流动以及随之而来的相互作用引起的。每个所考虑的 SIR 网络模型都捕捉了一类受传染病特征、相互作用拓扑结构和模仿动态影响的疫苗接种行为。我们的重点是在这些不同因素的影响下,在自愿疫苗接种计划下产生的疫苗接种覆盖率。使用下一代矩阵方法,我们对所提出的 SIR 网络模型的基本再生数 R0 进行了分析推导和比较。此外,我们还对所考虑的模型进行了随时间变化的传染病动力学模拟,并表明如果个体对疾病流行率的变化足够敏感,那么更广泛的旅行模式会鼓励向地方病、混合平衡点收敛。相反,如果个体对疾病流行率的变化不敏感,我们发现他们倾向于不接种疫苗。我们的结果与早期研究一致,表明来自高度连接的居住区域的居民更有可能接种疫苗。我们还表明,愿意接受接种的个体的存在会降低 R0 并延迟疾病流行率,因此对控制传染病至关重要。