School of Economics and Management, China University of Geosciences, Beijing, 100083, China.
Key Laboratory of Carrying Capacity Assessment for Resource and Environment, Ministry of Land and Resource, Beijing, 100083, China.
Environ Sci Pollut Res Int. 2019 Sep;26(26):27516-27533. doi: 10.1007/s11356-019-05537-9. Epub 2019 Jul 23.
With rapid industrialization and urbanization, regional water shortages and water quality deterioration have posed great challenges for the sustainable development of cities in North China, especially those with a large demand for agricultural irrigation water. Based on an input-output analysis, this paper develops a dynamic optimization model consisting of three sub-models and multiple constraint conditions to solve the water crisis of Baoding, a typical city experiencing water shortages and serious water pollution in North China. The water resource carrying capacity (WRCC) indicator is introduced in the analysis of the results to comprehensively assess the effect of integrated water environmental policies (IWEPs) from 2013 to 2025. In the optimal scenario, the annual chemical oxygen demand (COD) discharge and annual water demand in Baoding can be reduced by 2.6% and 0.6%, respectively, with an annual gross regional product (GRP) growth rate of 7.52%. The WRCC can be improved from moderately overloaded to weakly unsaturated, which indicates that water resources can meet the socioeconomic development requirements. The results demonstrate the effectiveness of the linear optimization model with input-output analysis in coordinating the relationships among water demand, water environment protection, and economic development, and the IWEPs provide an applicable reference for decision-makers in Baoding and other similar cities in North China to address deteriorating water systems.
随着工业化和城市化的快速发展，华北地区的区域性水资源短缺和水质恶化给城市的可持续发展带来了巨大挑战，特别是那些对农业灌溉用水需求较大的城市。本文基于投入产出分析，构建了一个由三个子模型和多个约束条件组成的动态优化模型，以解决华北地区典型缺水、水污染严重的保定市的水危机问题。在结果分析中引入水资源承载力（WRCC）指标，综合评估 2013-2025 年综合水环境保护政策（IWEPs）的效果。在最优情景下，保定市的年化学需氧量（COD）排放量和年需水量可分别减少 2.6%和 0.6%，年生产总值（GRP）增长率为 7.52%。WRCC 可从中度超载改善为弱不饱和，表明水资源能够满足社会经济发展需求。结果表明，基于投入产出分析的线性优化模型在协调水需求、水环境保护和经济发展之间的关系方面具有有效性，IWEPs 为保定市和华北其他类似城市的决策者提供了一个可行的参考，以应对日益恶化的水系统。
