School of Economics and Management, China University of Geosciences, Beijing, 100083, China.
Key Laboratory of Carrying Capacity Assessment for Resource and Environment, Ministry of Land and Resource, Beijing, 100083, China.
Environ Sci Pollut Res Int. 2021 May;28(20):25628-25649. doi: 10.1007/s11356-020-12191-z. Epub 2021 Jan 19.
Coastal cities play an important role in regional economic development and sustainable development strategies of water resources and their ecological environment. As a typical coastal city in Hebei Province, Qinhuangdao city is facing severe problems, such as water shortages and water environment deterioration, while social and economic development continues. Based on input-output analysis, we established a dynamic optimization model among Qinhuangdao city's socioeconomic development, water resources and water environment. The 2013-2030 simulation after introducing comprehensive water resources policies of regional development, examines the regional socioeconomic development, optimizes the water resources supply structure and improves the water environment under the optimal scenario, and evaluates policy feasibility through cost-benefit analysis (CBA). The simulation results suggest that under the optimal scenario, the water-use efficiency (WE) of Qinhuangdao is improved by 59.14% and the proportion of reclaimed water and desalinated seawater in the water supply structure is increased by 13.70%. In addition, it has achieved an average annual gross regional production (GRP) growth rate of 6.36% and an average annual chemical oxygen demand (COD) emission rate of 17.95%. Moreover, the net present value (NPV) of the projects under the optimal scenario is 1.534 billion Chinese yuan (CNY), which means that the policy is economically feasible. Our research is helpful to improve the WE, optimize the water supply structure and protect the hydrogeological environment in coastal cities with water shortages and can provide a reference for Qinhuangdao city and other similar coastal cities to realize the rational utilization of water resources and regional sustainable development.
沿海城市在区域经济发展和水资源及其生态环境的可持续发展战略中发挥着重要作用。作为河北省的一个典型沿海城市，秦皇岛市面临着严重的问题，如水资源短缺和水环境恶化，而社会经济发展仍在继续。基于投入产出分析，我们建立了秦皇岛市社会经济发展、水资源和水环境之间的动态优化模型。在引入区域发展综合水资源政策后，对 2013-2030 年进行模拟，考察了区域社会经济发展，优化了水资源供应结构，改善了最优情景下的水环境，并通过成本效益分析（CBA）评估政策可行性。模拟结果表明，在最优情景下，秦皇岛的用水效率（WE）提高了 59.14%，再生水和海水淡化水在供水结构中的比例提高了 13.70%。此外，它实现了平均年总区域生产总值（GRP）增长率为 6.36%和平均年化学需氧量（COD）排放量增长率为 17.95%。此外，最优情景下项目的净现值（NPV）为 15.34 亿元人民币（CNY），这意味着该政策在经济上是可行的。我们的研究有助于提高用水效率，优化供水结构，保护缺水沿海城市的水文地质环境，可以为秦皇岛市和其他类似沿海城市实现水资源的合理利用和区域可持续发展提供参考。
