Santos Cledy Eliana Dos, Campos Luciana Silveira, Barros Newton, Serafim José Américo, Klug Daniel, Cruz Ricardo Pedrini
Palliative Care and Pain Services. Hospital Nossa Senhora da Conceição - Conceição Hospital Group - Porto Alegre, Brasil.
Community Health Service - Conceição Hospital Group - Porto Alegre, Brasil.
Rev Assoc Med Bras (1992). 2019 Jul 22;65(6):796-800. doi: 10.1590/1806-9282.65.6.796.
To estimate the human resources and services needed to meet the demand of the Brazilian population who would benefit from palliative care, based on the population growth projection for 2040.
Population and mortality estimates and projections were obtained from the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics. Service needs were estimated based on literature data.
The expected increase in the Brazilian population for 2000-2040 is 31.5%. The minimum estimate of patients with palliative care needs was 662,065 in 2000 and 1,166,279 in 2040. The staff required for each hundred thousand inhabitants would increase from 1,734 to 2,282, the number of doctors needed would increase from 4,470 to 6,274, and the number of nurses from 8,586 to 11,294, for the same period.
The definition of a national strategy predicting the increasing palliative care needs of the population is necessary. The expansion of the support network for chronic and non-transmissible diseases is necessary, but the training of existing human resources at all levels of attention to perform palliative actions can be a feasible alternative to minimize the suffering of the population.
根据2040年的人口增长预测，估算满足巴西有姑息治疗需求人群所需的人力资源和服务。
人口和死亡率估算及预测数据来自巴西地理与统计研究所。服务需求根据文献数据估算。
2000年至2040年巴西人口预计增长31.5%。2000年姑息治疗需求患者的最低估算数为662,065人，2040年为1,166,279人。同期，每十万居民所需工作人员将从1,734人增至2,282人，所需医生数量将从4,470人增至6,274人，护士数量将从8,586人增至11,294人。
有必要制定一项国家战略，预测人群对姑息治疗需求的增长。扩大慢性和非传染性疾病支持网络很有必要，但培训各级现有医护人员开展姑息治疗行动，可能是减轻民众痛苦的可行选择。
