Department of Economics, University of Munich (LMU), Munich, Germany.
CREED, Economics Department, University of Amsterdam, Amsterdam, the Netherlands.
Nat Hum Behav. 2019 Oct;3(10):1055-1061. doi: 10.1038/s41562-019-0666-7. Epub 2019 Jul 29.
There is ample evidence that the average person thinks he or she is more skilful, more beautiful and kinder than others and that such overconfidence may result in substantial personal and social costs. To explain the prevalence of overconfidence, social scientists usually point to its affective benefits, such as those stemming from a good self-image or reduced anxiety about an uncertain future. An alternative theory, first advanced by evolutionary biologist Robert Trivers, posits that people self-deceive into higher confidence to more effectively persuade or deceive others. Here we conduct two experiments (combined n = 688) to test this strategic self-deception hypothesis. After performing a cognitively challenging task, half of our subjects are informed that they can earn money if, during a short face-to-face interaction, they convince others of their superior performance. We find that the privately elicited beliefs of the group that was informed of the profitable deception opportunity exhibit significantly more overconfidence than the beliefs of the control group. To test whether higher confidence ultimately pays off, we experimentally manipulate the confidence of the subjects by means of a noisy feedback signal. We find that this exogenous shift in confidence makes subjects more persuasive in subsequent face-to-face interactions. Overconfidence emerges from these results as the product of an adaptive cognitive technology with important social benefits, rather than some deficiency or bias.
有充分的证据表明，一般人认为自己比别人更有技能、更美丽、更善良，这种过度自信可能会导致巨大的个人和社会成本。为了解释过度自信的普遍性，社会科学家通常指出它的情感益处，例如良好的自我形象或减少对不确定未来的焦虑。进化生物学家罗伯特·特里弗斯（Robert Trivers）首先提出了一种替代理论，即人们自欺欺人地增加自信，以便更有效地说服或欺骗他人。在这里，我们进行了两项实验（合并 n=688）来检验这种策略性自欺欺人的假设。在完成一项认知挑战任务后，我们告知一半的受试者，如果他们在短暂的面对面互动中让别人相信自己的表现更出色，他们就可以赚到钱。我们发现，被告知有获利欺骗机会的群体的私下引出的信念比对照组的信念表现出明显更高的过度自信。为了测试更高的信心是否最终会带来回报，我们通过嘈杂的反馈信号来实验性地操纵受试者的信心。我们发现，这种外生的信心转变使受试者在随后的面对面互动中更具说服力。从这些结果中可以看出，过度自信是一种适应性认知技术的产物，具有重要的社会益处，而不是某种缺陷或偏见。
