University of Gondar, College of Veterinary Medicine and Animal Sciences,Department of Veterinary Epidemiology and Public Health,P.O. Box. 196, Gondar,Ethiopia.
Epidemiol Infect. 2019 Jan;147:e189. doi: 10.1017/S0950268819000803.
Foot and mouth disease (FMD) is a highly contagious and economically important disease of cloven-hoofed animals, which is endemic in Ethiopia. An outbreak follow-up study was undertaken to quantify the transmission parameters of FMD in the crop-livestock mixed (CLM) system and commercial dairy farms in selected areas of northwest Ethiopia. The transmission parameters were quantified using a generalised linear model (GLM) based on a susceptible-infectious-recovered (SIR) epidemic model. The per day average transmission rate between animals was 0.26 (95% CI 0.22-0.32) and 0.33 (95% CI 0.21-0.57) in the CLM system and in the commercial dairy farms, respectively. The average basic reproduction ratio of FMD was 1.68 (95% CI 1.42-2.07) in the CLM system and 1.98 (95% CI 1.26-3.42) in the commercial dairy farms. The medium per day transmission rate and moderate basic reproduction ratio observed in this study indicated that a vaccination coverage needed to stop transmission of the disease in these populations might not be very high.
口蹄疫（FMD）是一种高度传染性且经济上非常重要的偶蹄动物疾病，在埃塞俄比亚流行。本研究开展了一次暴发后随访研究，以量化作物-牲畜混合（CLM）系统和选定的埃塞俄比亚西北部商业奶牛场中 FMD 的传播参数。使用基于易感-感染-恢复（SIR）流行模型的广义线性模型（GLM）量化了传播参数。CLM 系统和商业奶牛场中动物之间的日平均传播率分别为 0.26（95%CI 0.22-0.32）和 0.33（95%CI 0.21-0.57）。FMD 的平均基本繁殖率在 CLM 系统和商业奶牛场中分别为 1.68（95%CI 1.42-2.07）和 1.98（95%CI 1.26-3.42）。本研究中观察到的中等日平均传播率和中等基本繁殖率表明，要在这些人群中停止疾病传播，所需的疫苗接种覆盖率可能不会很高。
