Middlebury College, Middlebury, VT; Guttmacher Institute, New York, NY; Advancing New Standards in Reproductive Health (ANSIRH), Bixby Center for Global Reproductive Health, Department of Obstetrics, Gynecology and Reproductive Sciences, University of California, San Francisco, Oakland, CA.
Middlebury College, Middlebury, VT; Guttmacher Institute, New York, NY; Advancing New Standards in Reproductive Health (ANSIRH), Bixby Center for Global Reproductive Health, Department of Obstetrics, Gynecology and Reproductive Sciences, University of California, San Francisco, Oakland, CA.
Contraception. 2019 Nov;100(5):367-373. doi: 10.1016/j.contraception.2019.07.139. Epub 2019 Jul 31.
To examine changes in travel distance and abortion incidence if Roe v. Wade were reversed or if abortion were further restricted.
We used a national database of abortion facilities to calculate travel distances from the population centroids of United States counties to the nearest publicly-identifiable abortion facility. We then estimated these travel distances under two hypothetical post-Roe scenarios. In the first, abortion becomes illegal in eight states with preemptive "trigger bans." In the second, abortion becomes illegal in an additional 13 states classified as at high risk of outlawing abortions under most circumstances. Using previously-published estimates of the short-run causal effects of increases in travel distances on abortion rates in Texas, we estimate changes in abortion incidence under each scenario.
If Roe were reversed and all high-risk states banned abortion, 39% of the national population of women aged 15-44 would experience increases in travel distances ranging from less than 1 mile to 791 miles. If these women respond similarly to travel distances as Texas women, county-level abortion rates would fall by amounts ranging from less than 1% to more than 40%. Aggregating across all affected regions, the average resident is expected to experience a 249 mile increase in travel distance, and the abortion rate is predicted to fall by 32.8% (95% confidence interval 25.9-39.6%) in the year following a Roe reversal.
In the year following a reversal, increases in travel distances are predicted to prevent 93,546-143,561 women from accessing abortion care.
A reversal or weakening of Roe is likely to increase spatial disparities in abortion access. This could translate to a reduction in abortion rates and an increase in unwanted births and self-managed abortions.
如果罗诉韦德案被推翻，或者堕胎进一步受到限制，研究旅行距离和堕胎发生率的变化。
我们使用一个全国性的堕胎设施数据库，计算美国各县人口中心到最近可公开识别的堕胎设施的旅行距离。然后，我们在罗诉韦德案被推翻后的两种假设情景下估计了这些旅行距离。在第一种情景下，八个州的堕胎将变得非法，这些州具有预先的“触发禁令”。在第二种情景下，另外 13 个州的堕胎将变得非法，这些州在大多数情况下被归类为堕胎极有可能被禁止的高风险州。我们利用先前发表的关于旅行距离增加对德克萨斯州堕胎率的短期因果效应的估计，估计了每种情景下堕胎发生率的变化。
如果罗诉韦德案被推翻，所有高风险州都禁止堕胎，那么 15-44 岁的全国女性人口中有 39%将面临旅行距离增加，范围从不到 1 英里到 791 英里。如果这些女性对旅行距离的反应与德克萨斯州的女性相同，县一级的堕胎率将下降 1%至 40%以上。在所有受影响的地区进行汇总，预计每个居民平均将增加 249 英里的旅行距离，并且在罗诉韦德案被推翻后的一年中，堕胎率预计将下降 32.8%（95%置信区间为 25.9-39.6%）。
在罗诉韦德案被推翻后的一年里，旅行距离的增加预计将阻止 93546-143561 名妇女获得堕胎护理。
罗诉韦德案的推翻或削弱可能会增加堕胎机会的空间差异。这可能会导致堕胎率降低，意外怀孕和自我管理堕胎增加。
