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高速公路干线的内源性商业驾驶员交通违法行为与货运卡车相关事故。

Endogenous commercial driver's traffic violations and freight truck-involved crashes on mainlines of expressway.

机构信息

Department of Transportation Engineering, The University of Seoul, 163 Seoulsiripdae-ro Dongdaemun-gu, Seoul, 02504, South Korea.

Department of Transportation & Logistics Engineering, Hanyang University, 55 Hanyangdeahak-ro, Ansan, Gyeonggi-do, 15588, South Korea.

出版信息

Accid Anal Prev. 2019 Oct;131:327-335. doi: 10.1016/j.aap.2019.07.026. Epub 2019 Aug 1.

Abstract

Freight truck-involved crashes result in a high mortality rate and significantly impact logistic costs; therefore, many researchers have analyzed the causes of truck-involved traffic crashes. In the existing literature, it was found that truck-involved crashes are affected by factors such as road geometry, weather, driver and vehicle characteristics, and traffic volume based on a variety of statistical methodologies; however, the endogenous impact resulting from driver traffic violation has not been considered. The goal of the study is to discover the factors influencing freight vehicle crashes and develop more accurate crash probability estimation by explaining the endogenous driver traffic violations. To achieve the purpose of this study, we applied the two-stage residual inclusion (2SRI) approach, a methodology used in the nonlinear regression analysis model for capturing the endogeneity issue. This method improves the accuracy of the model by capturing the unobserved effects of driver traffic violations. From the results, traffic violations were identified to be influenced by the driver's physical condition, as well as driver and vehicle characteristics. Furthermore, variables of driver traffic violations such as improper passing, speeding, and safe distance violation were found to be endogenous in the probability model of freight truck crashes on expressway mainlines.

摘要

货车相关事故导致高死亡率,并对物流成本产生重大影响;因此,许多研究人员基于各种统计方法分析了导致货车事故的原因。在现有的文献中发现,货车事故受到道路几何形状、天气、驾驶员和车辆特性以及交通量等因素的影响;然而,尚未考虑驾驶员交通违法行为的内生影响。本研究的目的是通过解释内生驾驶员交通违法行为来发现影响货运车辆事故的因素,并通过解释内生驾驶员交通违法行为来开发更准确的碰撞概率估计。为了达到本研究的目的,我们应用了两阶段残差包含(2SRI)方法,这是一种用于捕获内生性问题的非线性回归分析模型中的方法。该方法通过捕获驾驶员交通违法行为的未观测效应来提高模型的准确性。结果表明,交通违法行为受到驾驶员身体状况以及驾驶员和车辆特性的影响。此外,还发现驾驶员交通违法行为的变量,如不当超车、超速和安全距离违法行为,在高速公路主线货运卡车碰撞概率模型中是内生的。

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