Dong Chunjiao, Richards Stephen H, Huang Baoshan, Jiang Ximiao
a Center of Transportation Research , The University of Tennessee , 600 Henley Street, Knoxville , 37996 TN , USA.
Int J Inj Contr Saf Promot. 2015;22(2):116-26. doi: 10.1080/17457300.2013.844713. Epub 2013 Oct 18.
To address the dilemma between the need for truck transportation and the costs related to truck-involved crashes, the key is to identify the risk factors that significantly affect truck-involved crashes. The objective of this research is to estimate the effects of the characteristics of traffic, driver, geometry, and environment on severity of truck-involved crashes. Based on four crash severity categories (fatal/incapacitating, non-incapacitating, possible injury, and no injury/property damage only), a multinomial logit model is conducted to identify the risk factors. The investigation of risk ratios indicates that lower traffic volume with higher truck percentage is associated with more serious traffic crash with fatal/incapacitating injury while a non-standard geometric design is the main cause of non-incapacitating crashes. The influences of weather are significant for the possible-injury crashes while driver condition is the principal cause of no-injury/property-damage-only crashes. In addition, the statistical results demonstrate that the influence of the truck percentage is significant. One-unit change in the truck percentage will cause more than one times probability of being in an injury.
为解决卡车运输需求与卡车相关碰撞事故成本之间的两难困境，关键在于识别显著影响卡车相关碰撞事故的风险因素。本研究的目的是评估交通、驾驶员、几何形状和环境特征对卡车相关碰撞事故严重程度的影响。基于四个碰撞严重程度类别（致命/致残、非致残、可能受伤、仅无伤害/财产损失），建立多项logit模型以识别风险因素。风险比率调查表明，较低的交通流量且卡车比例较高与更严重的致命/致残伤害交通事故相关，而非标准的几何设计是造成非致残碰撞事故的主要原因。天气对可能受伤的碰撞事故影响显著，而驾驶员状况是仅造成无伤害/财产损失碰撞事故的主要原因。此外，统计结果表明卡车比例的影响显著。卡车比例每变化一个单位，发生受伤事故的概率将增加一倍以上。
