Institute of Environmental Toxicology, Huxley College of the Environment, Western Washington University, Bellingham, Washington, USA.
Puyallup Research and Extension Center, Washington State University, Puyallup, Washington, USA.
Integr Environ Assess Manag. 2020 Jan;16(1):28-42. doi: 10.1002/ieam.4199. Epub 2019 Oct 31.
We estimated the risk to populations of Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) due to chlorpyrifos (CH), water temperature (WT), and dissolved oxygen concentration (DO) in 4 watersheds in Washington State, USA. The watersheds included the Nooksack and Skagit Rivers in the Northern Puget Sound, the Cedar River in the Seattle-Tacoma corridor, and the Yakima River, a tributary of the Columbia River. The Bayesian network relative risk model (BN-RRM) was used to conduct this ecological risk assessment and was modified to contain an acetylcholinesterase (AChE) inhibition pathway parameterized using data from CH toxicity data sets. The completed BN-RRM estimated risk at a population scale to Chinook salmon employing classical matrix modeling runs up to 50-y timeframes. There were 3 primary conclusions drawn from the model-building process and the risk calculations. First, the incorporation of an AChE inhibition pathway and the output from a population model can be combined with environmental factors in a quantitative fashion. Second, the probability of not meeting the management goal of no loss to the population ranges from 65% to 85%. Environmental conditions contributed to a larger proportion of the risk compared to CH. Third, the sensitivity analysis describing the influence of the variables on the predicted risk varied depending on seasonal conditions. In the summer, WT and DO were more influential than CH. In the winter, when the seasonal conditions are more benign, CH was the driver. Fourth, in order to reach the management goal, we calculated the conditions that would increase juvenile survival, adult survival, and a reduction in toxicological effects. The same process in this example should be applicable to the inclusion of multiple pesticides and to more descriptive population models such as those describing metapopulations. Integr Environ Assess Manag 2019;00:1-15. © 2019 SETAC.
我们评估了美国华盛顿州 4 个流域中奇努克鲑鱼（Oncorhynchus tshawytscha）因毒死蜱（CH）、水温和溶解氧浓度（DO）而面临的风险。这些流域包括普吉特海湾北部的努克萨克河和斯卡吉特河、西雅图-塔科马走廊的雪松河以及哥伦比亚河的支流雅基马河。贝叶斯网络相对风险模型（BN-RRM）用于进行这项生态风险评估，并进行了修改，包含了一个基于 CH 毒性数据集的乙酰胆碱酯酶（AChE）抑制途径参数。完成的 BN-RRM 采用经典矩阵模型，在长达 50 年的时间框架内，对奇努克鲑鱼的种群规模进行风险估计。从模型构建过程和风险计算中得出了 3 个主要结论。首先，将 AChE 抑制途径和种群模型的输出与环境因素相结合，可以进行定量分析。其次，不满足种群无损失管理目标的概率在 65%到 85%之间。与 CH 相比，环境条件对风险的贡献更大。第三，描述变量对预测风险影响的敏感性分析因季节性条件而异。在夏季，WT 和 DO 比 CH 更具影响力。在冬季，当季节性条件较温和时，CH 是主要驱动因素。第四，为了达到管理目标，我们计算了增加幼鱼存活率、成鱼存活率和降低毒理学效应的条件。这个例子中的相同过程应该适用于包含多种农药和更具描述性的种群模型，如描述复合种群的模型。综合环境评估与管理 2019；00：1-15。©2019 SETAC。
