Chemhaka Garikayi B, Odimegwu Clifford O
Demography and Population Studies Programme, Schools of Social Sciences and Public Health, University of the Witwatersrand, Private Bag 3, Wits 2050, South Africa.
Department of Statistics and Demography, University of Eswatini, Private Bag 4, Kwaluseni, Eswatini (formerly Swaziland).
Afr J Reprod Health. 2019 Jun;23(2):65-75. doi: 10.29063/ajrh2019/v23i2.7.
Accelerating downwards the fertility rate remains a priority issue for developmental planning of any country. Fertility transition for most African countries has been slow since attaining their independence. In a period of almost four decades Eswatini experienced high fertility above replacement level fertility of 2.1; total fertility rate has declined from 6 to 4 children per woman from 1968 to 2007. This paper examines the impact of each proximate factor (contraception, postpartum infecundability, abortion and sexual activity) on fertility. Using the cross-sectional data from the 2006-7 Eswatini Demographic and Health Survey (DHS), the revised Bongaarts proximate determinants model of fertility was applied at national level and the analysis was extended to observe educational variation among women aged 15-49. The analysis showed that contraception had the greatest impact of fertility reduction, then sexual activity, postpartum infecundability and induced abortion. Women's educational level had huge negative influence on fertility and positive implication on reproductive choice of using contraception, delaying sexual activity/marriage and childbearing. The results guide on selection of potential social variables amenable to policy aimed at improving women's reproductive behaviour in Eswatini through better educational attainment.
降低生育率仍然是任何国家发展规划中的一个优先问题。自独立以来，大多数非洲国家的生育率转变一直很缓慢。在近四十年的时间里，斯威士兰的生育率一直高于更替水平的2.1；从1968年到2007年，总生育率从每名妇女6个孩子下降到了4个孩子。本文研究了每个直接因素（避孕、产后不孕、堕胎和性活动）对生育率的影响。利用2006 - 2007年斯威士兰人口与健康调查（DHS）的横断面数据，在国家层面应用了修订后的邦加茨生育率直接决定因素模型，并将分析扩展到观察15 - 49岁女性的教育差异。分析表明，避孕对降低生育率的影响最大，其次是性活动、产后不孕和人工流产。女性的教育水平对生育率有巨大的负面影响，对使用避孕措施、推迟性活动/婚姻和生育的生殖选择有积极影响。这些结果为选择潜在的社会变量提供了指导，这些变量适合通过提高教育程度来改善斯威士兰女性生殖行为的政策。
