Sibanda Amson, Woubalem Zewdu, Hogan Dennis P, Lindstrom David P
Department of Sociology and Population Studies and Training Center, Brown University, Providence, RI, USA.
Stud Fam Plann. 2003 Mar;34(1):1-7. doi: 10.1111/j.1728-4465.2003.00001.x.
Between 1990 and 2000, the total fertility rate (TFR) in Ethiopia declined moderately from 6.4 to 5.9 children per woman of reproductive age. During the same period, the TFR in the capital city of Addis Ababa declined from 3.1 to 1.9 children per woman. Even more striking than the magnitude of this decline is that it occurred in the absence of a strong and effective national family planning program. In this study, the components of this fertility decline are identified using the Bongaarts framework of the proximate determinants of fertility. The results of a decomposition analysis indicate that a decrease in the age-specific proportions of women who are married, followed by an increase in contraceptive use are the most important mechanisms by which fertility has declined in Addis Ababa. Poor employment prospects and relatively high housing costs are likely factors that encourage couples to delay marriage and reduce marital fertility.
1990年至2000年间，埃塞俄比亚的总和生育率（TFR）从每名育龄妇女6.4个孩子适度下降至5.9个孩子。同一时期，首都亚的斯亚贝巴的总和生育率从每名妇女3.1个孩子降至1.9个孩子。比这一下降幅度更惊人的是，它是在没有强有力且有效的国家计划生育项目的情况下发生的。在本研究中，利用邦加茨生育近因决定因素框架确定了这种生育率下降的构成因素。分解分析结果表明，已婚妇女年龄别比例下降，随后是避孕措施使用增加，是亚的斯亚贝巴生育率下降的最重要机制。就业前景不佳和住房成本相对较高可能是促使夫妇推迟结婚并降低婚内生育率的因素。
