A multivariable model of BRAF and ultrasonographic features for predicting the risk of central lymph node metastasis in cN0 papillary thyroid microcarcinoma.

Prophylactic central lymph node dissection (CLND) in papillary thyroid microcarcinoma (PTMC) patients without clinical evidence of central lymph node metastasis (CLNM) remains controversial. The purpose of our study is to identify preoperative predictive factors for finding CLNM in Chinese PTMC patients, which may allow tailored CLND. We retrospectively reviewed 182 consecutive Chinese PMTC patients with negative central lymph nodes who underwent total thyroidectomy plus central neck dissection from October 2015 to December 2017. Chi-squared and multivariate analysis were performed to evaluate the association of CLNM with ultrasonographic and clinicopathologic characteristics. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis was performed to evaluate the utility of markers in predicting CLNM. The CLNM was found in 39.0% (71 of 182) of cN0 PTMC patients. In multivariate analysis, tumor size>7 mm (OR: 3.636, 95% CI: 1.671-7.914), marked hypoechogenicity (OR: 2.686, 95% CI: 1.080-6.678), multifocality (OR: 4.184, 95% CI: 1.707-10.258) and BRAF mutation (OR: 5.339, 95% CI: 2.529-11.272) were independent predictors of CLNM. In ROC analysis integrating these predictors, the sensitivity was 63.4% and specificity was 80.2%, and the area under the ROC (AUC) was 0.755.  In conclusion, we found tumor size>7 mm, marked hypoechogenicity, multifocality, and BRAF mutation were risk factors for CLNM. In term of these preoperative risk factors for CLNM, prophylactic CLND should be cautiously performed in cN0 PTMC patients.