Chu J-E, Timmermann A, Lee J-Y
Center for Climate Physics, Institute for Basic Science (IBS), Busan 46241, South Korea.
Pusan National University, Busan 46241, South Korea.
Sci Adv. 2019 Aug 21;5(8):eaaw9950. doi: 10.1126/sciadv.aaw9950. eCollection 2019 Aug.
Annual tornado occurrences over North America display large interannual variability and a statistical linkage to sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies. However, the underlying physical mechanisms for this connection and its modulation in a rapidly varying seasonal environment still remain elusive. Using tornado data over the United States from 1954 to 2016 in combination with SST-forced atmospheric general circulation models, we show a robust dynamical linkage between global SST conditions in April, the emergence of the Pacific-North American teleconnection pattern (PNA), and the year-to-year tornado activity in the Southern Great Plains (SGP) region of the United States. Contrasting previous studies, we find that only in April SST-driven atmospheric circulation anomalies can effectively control the northward moisture-laden flow from the Gulf of Mexico, boosting low-level moisture flux convergence over the SGP. These strong large-scale connections are absent in other months because of the strong seasonality of the PNA and background moisture conditions.
北美洲每年的龙卷风发生情况呈现出很大的年际变化,并且与海表面温度(SST)异常存在统计上的联系。然而,这种联系背后的物理机制以及它在快速变化的季节环境中的调节作用仍然难以捉摸。利用1954年至2016年美国的龙卷风数据,并结合由海表面温度驱动的大气环流模型,我们展示了4月全球海表面温度状况、太平洋 - 北美遥相关型(PNA)的出现与美国南部大平原(SGP)地区逐年龙卷风活动之间存在稳健的动力学联系。与之前的研究不同,我们发现只有在4月,由海表面温度驱动的大气环流异常才能有效地控制来自墨西哥湾向北的水汽输送流,增强美国南部大平原上空的低空水汽通量辐合。由于太平洋 - 北美遥相关型和背景水汽条件的强烈季节性,在其他月份不存在这些强大的大尺度联系。