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上游表面粗糙度和地形是南北美洲龙卷风潜在可能性差异的强大驱动因素。

Upstream surface roughness and terrain are strong drivers of contrast in tornado potential between North and South America.

作者信息

Li Funing, Chavas Daniel R, Medeiros Brian, Reed Kevin A, Rasmussen Kristen L

机构信息

Department of Earth, Atmospheric, and Planetary Sciences, Purdue University, West Lafayette, IN 47907.

Climate and Global Dynamics Laboratory, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO 80307.

出版信息

Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2024 Jun 25;121(26):e2315425121. doi: 10.1073/pnas.2315425121. Epub 2024 Jun 18.

Abstract

Central North America is the global hotspot for tornadoes, fueled by elevated terrain of the Rockies to the west and a source of warm, moist air from equatorward oceans. This conventional wisdom argues that central South America, with the Andes to the west and Amazon basin to the north, should have a "tornado alley" at least as active as central North America. Central South America has frequent severe thunderstorms yet relatively few tornadoes. Here, we show that conventional wisdom is missing an important ingredient specific to tornadoes: a smooth, flat ocean-like upstream surface. Using global climate model experiments, we show that central South American tornado potential substantially increases if its equatorward land surface is smoothed and flattened to be ocean-like. Similarly, we show that central North American tornado potential substantially decreases if its equatorward ocean surface is roughened to values comparable to forested land. A rough upstream surface suppresses the formation of tornadic environments principally by weakening the poleward low-level winds, characterized by a weakened low-level jet east of the mountain range. Results are shown to be robust for any midlatitude landmass using idealized experiments with a simplified continent and mountain range. Our findings indicate that large-scale upstream surface roughness is likely a first-order driver of the strong contrast in tornado potential between North and South America.

摘要

北美中部是全球龙卷风的热点地区,西部落基山脉的高地以及来自赤道附近海洋的温暖潮湿空气源为其提供了动力。这种传统观点认为,南美洲中部西有安第斯山脉,北有亚马逊盆地,应该至少有一条与北美中部一样活跃的“龙卷风走廊”。南美洲中部经常出现严重雷暴,但龙卷风相对较少。在这里,我们表明传统观点忽略了一个龙卷风特有的重要因素:一个平滑、平坦的类似海洋的上游表面。通过全球气候模型实验,我们表明,如果南美洲中部向赤道方向的陆地表面被平滑并平整成类似海洋的状态,其龙卷风潜力将大幅增加。同样,我们表明,如果北美中部向赤道方向的海洋表面粗糙度增加到与森林覆盖的陆地相当的值,其龙卷风潜力将大幅下降。粗糙的上游表面主要通过削弱向极地的低空风来抑制龙卷风环境的形成,其特征是山脉以东的低空急流减弱。使用简化大陆和山脉的理想化实验表明,对于任何中纬度大陆,结果都是稳健的。我们的研究结果表明,大规模的上游表面粗糙度可能是南北美洲龙卷风潜力强烈对比中的一个首要驱动因素。

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