Department of Statistics and Operations Research, University of València, Spain.
Statistics Office, City Council of València, Spain.
Accid Anal Prev. 2019 Nov;132:105237. doi: 10.1016/j.aap.2019.07.013. Epub 2019 Aug 30.
Traffic safety around school locations is a topic of particular interest given the large number of vulnerable users, such as pedestrians or cyclists, that commute to them at certain times of the day. A dataset of traffic accidents recorded in Valencia (Spain) during 2014 and 2015 is analyzed in order to estimate the effects that school locations produce on traffic risk within their surroundings. The four typologies of school in this city according to the academic levels they offer (All-level, Preschool, Primary, Secondary) are distinguished and taken into consideration for the analysis. Two time windows comprising the starting time in the morning and the evening time once day school has ended are analyzed independently. Several statistical methods are used, including observed vs expected ratios, macroscopic conditional autoregressive modelling, logistic regression in the context of a case-control study design and risk modelling in relation to several school locations. The distances to each type of school and a set of environmental, traffic-related, demographic and socioeconomic covariates are employed for the analysis. The macroscopic modelling of accident counts and the modelling of risk as a function of the distance to each type of school serves to confirm that proximity to a school has an effect on the incidence of traffic accidents in particular time windows. Specifically, school types coexisting in Valencia show differential behaviour in this regard. In addition, several covariates have displayed a positive (bus stop density, complex intersections, main road length) and negative (land use entropy) association with accident counts in the time windows investigated. Finally, the definition of a case-control study design enabled us to observe some differences undetected by the macroscopic approaches that would require further research.
学校周边交通安全是一个特别值得关注的话题，因为在一天中的特定时间，有大量的弱势用户，如行人和骑自行车的人，会前往学校。本文分析了 2014 年至 2015 年在西班牙巴伦西亚记录的交通事故数据集，以估计学校位置对其周围交通风险的影响。根据提供的学术水平，将该市的四类学校（全能学校、幼儿园、小学、中学）区分开来，并考虑到分析中。分别分析了包含早晨上学开始时间和下午放学后的两个时间窗口。使用了几种统计方法，包括观察与预期比率、宏观条件自回归建模、病例对照研究设计中的逻辑回归以及与多个学校位置相关的风险建模。分析中使用了到每种类型学校的距离以及一系列环境、交通相关、人口统计和社会经济协变量。对事故次数的宏观建模和风险建模作为距离每种类型学校的函数，证实了在特定时间窗口，学校附近会对交通事故的发生率产生影响。具体来说，在巴伦西亚共存的学校类型在这方面表现出不同的行为。此外，在调查的时间窗口中，几个协变量与事故次数呈正相关（公共汽车站密度、复杂交叉口、主要道路长度）和负相关（土地利用熵）。最后，病例对照研究设计的定义使我们能够观察到宏观方法无法检测到的一些差异，这需要进一步研究。
