Center for Information Technology, Fondazione Bruno Kessler, Trento, Italy.
Department of Social and Political Sciences, Bocconi University, Milano, Italy.
Elife. 2019 Sep 3;8:e44942. doi: 10.7554/eLife.44942.
High-income countries are experiencing measles reemergence as the result of suboptimal vaccine uptake and marked immunity gaps among adults. In 2017, the Italian Government introduced mandatory vaccination at school entry for ten infectious diseases, including measles. However, sustainable and effective vaccination strategies targeting adults are still lacking. We use a data-driven model of household demography to estimate the potential impact on future measles epidemiology of a novel immunization strategy, to be implemented on top of the 2017 regulation, which consists of offering measles vaccine to the parents of children who get vaccinated. Model simulations suggest that the current vaccination efforts in Italy would not be sufficient to interrupt measles transmission before 2045 because of the frequency of susceptible individuals between 17 and 44 years of age. The integration of the current policy with parental vaccination has the potential to reduce susceptible adults by 17-35%, increasing the chance of measles elimination before 2045 up to 78.9-96.5%.
高收入国家由于疫苗接种率不理想和成年人中明显存在免疫空白,出现了麻疹卷土重来的情况。2017 年,意大利政府规定在学校入学时对包括麻疹在内的十种传染病进行强制性疫苗接种。然而,针对成年人的可持续和有效的疫苗接种策略仍然缺乏。我们使用家庭人口统计学的数据分析模型来估计在 2017 年规定的基础上实施一种新的免疫接种策略对未来麻疹流行病学的潜在影响,这种策略包括为接种疫苗的儿童的父母提供麻疹疫苗。模型模拟表明,由于 17 至 44 岁之间易感个体的频率,意大利目前的疫苗接种工作在 2045 年前不足以阻断麻疹传播。将现行政策与父母接种疫苗相结合,有可能将 17-35%的易感成年人减少,从而使 2045 年前消除麻疹的机会增加到 78.9-96.5%。