Wei K F, Zhang H, He J, Yu D S, Yang X T, Jiang Z Y, Gou F X, Cheng Y, Liu H X, Zheng Y H, Jiang X J, Liu X F
Institute for Communicable Disease Control and Prevention, Gansu Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Lanzhou 730000, China.
Zhonghua Liu Xing Bing Xue Za Zhi. 2019 Aug 10;40(8):947-952. doi: 10.3760/cma.j.issn.0254-6450.2019.08.014.
To analyze the epidemiological and spatial-temporal distribution of Brucellosis, epidemic encephalitis B and hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (HFRS) in Gansu province during 2014-2018 so as to provide evidence for the prevention and control of those diseases. A database was established in Gansu province from 2014 to 2018, using the geographical information system. A spatial distribution map was drawn, with trend analysis and space-time clustering used to study the 3-dimention of the diseases, by using both ArcGIS 10.5 and SaTScan 9.6 softwares. Results from the trend surface analysis showed that the incidence of Brucellosis decreased gradually from north to south parts while the U type curve could reflect the distribution from the east to the west areas. Incidence of epidemic encephalitis B decreased significantly from south to north areas in the province, with incidence higher in the eastern than in the mid-west region. Difference on the incidence of HFRS was not significantly visible in the eastern and western regions, while the incidence was slightly higher in the southern than the northern parts of the province. Spatial and space-time clustering did exist among the 3 diseases in Gansu from 2014 to 2018. The areas with clusters of Brucellosis appeared in the eastern parts during 2014-2015, including 19 counties. The areas with secondary clusters of Brucellosis were seen in the Hexi district, including 4 counties, during 2017-2018. The areas with high incidence of epidemic encephalitis B were clustered in the middle and southeast areas, including 32 counties, during 2017-2018. Areas with most clusters of HFRS appeared in Min county of Dingxi city in 2018, with the areas of secondary clusters in 8 counties of the eastern areas in 2018. The overall incidence rates of the 3 natural focus diseases were in a upward trend and showing obvious characteristics on spatial clustering. According to the distributive characteristics, effective measures should be developed accordingly.
分析2014 - 2018年甘肃省布鲁氏菌病、流行性乙型脑炎和肾综合征出血热(HFRS)的流行病学及时空分布特征,为这几种疾病的防控提供依据。利用地理信息系统建立了甘肃省2014 - 2018年数据库。绘制空间分布图,运用趋势分析及时空聚类方法,借助ArcGIS 10.5和SaTScan 9.6软件研究这几种疾病的三维特征。趋势面分析结果显示,布鲁氏菌病发病率由北向南逐渐降低,U型曲线反映了其东西部地区的分布情况。流行性乙型脑炎发病率在省内由南向北显著降低,东部地区高于中西部地区。肾综合征出血热发病率在东西部地区差异不明显,省内南部地区略高于北部地区。2014 - 2018年甘肃省这3种疾病存在空间及时空聚集性。2014 - 2015年布鲁氏菌病聚集区出现在东部地区,包括19个县。2017 - 2018年布鲁氏菌病次聚集区出现在河西地区,包括4个县。2017 - 2018年流行性乙型脑炎高发病区聚集在中部和东南部地区,包括32个县。2018年肾综合征出血热聚集区最多的出现在定西市岷县,2018年次聚集区出现在东部地区的8个县。这3种自然疫源性疾病的总体发病率呈上升趋势,且具有明显的空间聚集特征。应根据分布特征制定相应的有效防控措施。