Department of Population Medicine, Harvard Medical School & Harvard Pilgrim Health Care Institute, Boston, USA.
Pathways M.D. Program, Harvard Medical School, Boston, USA.
Trials. 2019 Sep 5;20(1):552. doi: 10.1186/s13063-019-3577-z.
BACKGROUND: Randomized trials are considered the gold standard for making inferences about the causal effects of treatments. However, when protocol deviations occur, the baseline randomization of the trial is no longer sufficient to ensure unbiased estimation of the per-protocol effect: post-randomization, time-varying confounders must be sufficiently measured and adjusted for in the analysis. Given the historical emphasis on intention-to-treat effects in randomized trials, measurement of post-randomization confounders is typically infrequent. This may induce bias in estimates of the per-protocol effect, even using methods such as inverse probability weighting, which appropriately account for time-varying confounders affected by past treatment. METHODS/DESIGN: In order to concretely illustrate the potential magnitude of bias due to infrequent measurement of time-varying covariates, we simulated data from a very large trial with a survival outcome and time-varying confounding affected by past treatment. We generated the data such that the true underlying per-protocol effect is null and under varying degrees of confounding (strong, moderate, weak). In the simulated data, we estimated per-protocol survival curves and associated contrasts using inverse probability weighting under monthly measurement of the time-varying covariates (which constituted complete measurement in our simulation), yearly measurement, as well as 3- and 6-month intervals. RESULTS: Using inverse probability weighting, we were able to recover the true null under the complete measurement scenario no matter the strength of confounding. Under yearly measurement intervals, the estimate of the per-protocol effect diverged from the null; inverse probability weighted estimates of the per-protocol 5-year risk ratio based on yearly measurement were 1.19, 1.12, and 1.03 under strong, moderate, and weak confounding, respectively. Bias decreased with measurement interval length. Under all scenarios, inverse probability weighted estimators were considerably less biased than a naive estimator that ignored time-varying confounding completely. CONCLUSIONS: Bias that arises from interval measurement designs highlights the need for planning in the design of randomized trials for collection of time-varying covariate data. This may come from more frequent in-person measurement or external sources (e.g., electronic medical record data). Such planning will provide improved estimates of the per-protocol effect through the use of methods that appropriately adjust for time-varying confounders.
背景:随机试验被认为是推断治疗效果因果关系的黄金标准。然而,当方案偏离发生时,试验的基线随机化不再足以确保协议效果的无偏估计:在随机化后,必须充分测量和调整随时间变化的混杂因素,并在分析中进行调整。鉴于历史上对随机试验意向治疗效果的重视,对随机化后混杂因素的测量通常不频繁。即使使用适当考虑过去治疗影响的时间变化混杂因素的逆概率加权等方法,也可能会导致协议效果估计的偏差。
方法/设计:为了具体说明由于时间变化的协变量测量不频繁而导致的偏差的潜在幅度,我们从一项具有生存结局和受过去治疗影响的时间变化混杂的大型试验中模拟数据。我们生成的数据使得真实的协议效果为零,并且在不同程度的混杂(强、中、弱)下。在模拟数据中,我们使用逆概率加权估计协议生存曲线和相关对比,每月测量时间变化的协变量(在我们的模拟中构成完全测量),每年测量,以及 3 个月和 6 个月间隔。
结果:使用逆概率加权,无论混杂程度如何,我们都能够在完全测量的情况下恢复真实的零值。在每年测量的间隔下,协议效果的估计值与零值偏离;基于每年测量的逆概率加权估计的协议 5 年风险比分别为强、中、弱混杂下的 1.19、1.12 和 1.03。测量间隔长度越短,偏差越小。在所有情况下,逆概率加权估计量都比完全忽略时间变化混杂的简单估计量偏差小得多。
结论:间隔测量设计引起的偏差突出表明,在设计随机试验时需要进行规划,以便收集随时间变化的协变量数据。这可能来自更频繁的面对面测量或外部来源(例如,电子病历数据)。这种规划将通过使用适当调整时间变化混杂因素的方法来提高协议效果的估计值。
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