School of Management, China Institute for Studies in Energy Policy, Collaborative Innovation Center for Energy Economics and Energy Policy, Xiamen University, Fujian 361005, PR China.
Sci Total Environ. 2020 Jan 1;698:134241. doi: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.134241. Epub 2019 Sep 2.
In north China, many rural and urban residents still use coal for heating in winter. However, such method would result in a large amount of GHG emissions. China intends to change the heating method of its citizens from coal burning to electric heating to save energy, reduce emissions, which is called the project of Coal to Electricity (CtE). A dynamic recursive computable general equilibrium model is applied to analyze the real effect if the project is widely promoted in China. We found that CtE project is effective in reducing SO and NO emission than CO emissions. In essence, energy substitution is not energy-saving, so the contribution to CO reduction of CtE project is limited. There is a certain co-benefit between CtE project and other energy saving policies (new energy generation, improving heating efficiency and building energy saving etc.). The findings indicate that single CtE policy can only bring better air quality. However, with other energy saving policies, CtE project can not only bring NO and SO reduction, but also lead to less CO emissions and more convenient life. Multiple emission reduction measures are suggested to maximize the reduction effects of these policies.
在中国北方，许多农村和城市居民在冬季仍然使用煤炭取暖。然而，这种方法会导致大量温室气体排放。中国打算将居民的取暖方式从燃煤改为电取暖，以节约能源、减少排放，这被称为“煤改电”项目。本文采用动态递归可计算一般均衡模型来分析该项目在中国广泛推广的实际效果。研究结果表明，“煤改电”项目在减少 SO 和 NO 排放方面比 CO 排放更为有效。从本质上讲，能源替代并不是节能，因此“煤改电”项目对 CO 减排的贡献是有限的。“煤改电”项目与其他节能政策（新能源发电、提高供暖效率和建筑节能等）之间存在一定的协同效益。研究结果表明，单一的“煤改电”政策只能带来更好的空气质量。然而，随着其他节能政策的实施，“煤改电”项目不仅可以减少 NO 和 SO 的排放，还可以减少 CO 的排放，使生活更加便利。建议采取多种减排措施，以最大限度地提高这些政策的减排效果。
