School of Economics and Management, North China Electric Power University, Hui Long Guan, Chang Ping District, Beijing 102206, China.
School of Economics and Management, North China Electric Power University, Hui Long Guan, Chang Ping District, Beijing 102206, China.
Sci Total Environ. 2017 Mar 1;581-582:559-572. doi: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2016.12.164. Epub 2017 Jan 4.
Along with the arrival of the post-Kyoto Protocol era, the Chinese government faces ever greater pressure to reduce greenhouse gases (GHGs). Hence, this paper aims to discuss the drivers of carbon dioxide (CO) emissions and their impact on society as a whole. First, we analyzed the background and overall situations of CO emissions in China. Then, we reviewed previous studies to explore the determinants behind China's CO emissions. It is widely acknowledged that energy efficiency, energy mix, and economy structure are three key factors contributing to CO emissions. To explore the impacts of those three factors on the economy and CO emissions, we established a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model. The following results were found: (1) The decline of a secondary industry can cause an emission reduction effect, but this is at the expense of the gross domestic product (GDP), whereas the development of a tertiary industry can boost the economy and help to reduce CO emissions. (2) Cutting coal consumption can contribute significantly to emission reduction, which is accompanied by a great loss in the whole economy. (3) Although the energy efficiency improvement plays a positive role in promoting economic development, a backfire effect can weaken the effects of emission reduction and energy savings.
随着后京都议定书时代的到来，中国政府面临着越来越大的减少温室气体（GHGs）排放的压力。因此，本文旨在探讨二氧化碳（CO）排放的驱动因素及其对整个社会的影响。首先，我们分析了中国 CO 排放的背景和总体情况。然后，我们回顾了以往的研究，探讨了中国 CO 排放的决定因素。人们普遍认为，能源效率、能源结构和经济结构是导致 CO 排放的三个关键因素。为了探讨这三个因素对经济和 CO 排放的影响，我们建立了一个可计算一般均衡（CGE）模型。结果发现：（1）第二产业的下降会产生减排效果，但这是以牺牲国内生产总值（GDP）为代价的，而第三产业的发展可以促进经济增长并有助于减少 CO 排放。（2）减少煤炭消耗可以显著促进减排，但这会导致整个经济的巨大损失。（3）尽管能源效率的提高对促进经济发展起到了积极作用，但反作用会削弱减排和节能的效果。
