Senior Economist at the World Bank, United States.
Economist at the World Bank, United States.
Disasters. 2020 Jul;44(3):455-476. doi: 10.1111/disa.12411. Epub 2020 Jan 22.
This paper contributes to the evidence on the effectiveness of shock-responsive social protection systems in helping affected households recover from the negative consequences of disasters. It evaluates the influence of the top-up cash transfers provided by the Government of Fiji to poor households in the wake of Tropical Cyclone Winston, which struck the Pacific Island country on 20 February 2016. The impact evaluation strategy incorporates a sharp regression discontinuity design to define treatment and control groups, based on the eligibility threshold of the poverty benefit scheme. The results indicate that treatment households-that is, those that received cash transfers-are significantly more likely to report quicker recovery from various shocks. Female-headed households are more likely to recover from the ramifications, whereas households with older heads are less likely to do so. The presence of a functioning market appears to be a major factor aiding the speed of recovery. Finally, the evidence points towards strong district effects on recovery.
本文为证明冲击响应型社会保护体系在帮助受影响家庭从灾害的负面影响中恢复方面的有效性做出了贡献。本文评估了斐济政府在 2016 年 2 月 20 日热带气旋“温斯顿”袭击太平洋岛国后向贫困家庭提供追加现金转移的影响。影响评估策略采用了一种明显的回归不连续性设计，根据贫困福利计划的资格标准来确定处理组和对照组。结果表明，接受现金转移的处理家庭——即那些接受现金转移的家庭——更有可能迅速从各种冲击中恢复。女性户主家庭更有可能从影响中恢复，而年龄较大的户主家庭则不太可能从影响中恢复。市场的正常运转似乎是促进恢复速度的一个重要因素。最后，证据表明，地区对恢复的影响很大。
