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欧洲中期天气预报中心(ERA - interim)数据中快速变暖期和全球变暖停滞期地表能量收支的年代际演变。

Decadal evolution of the surface energy budget during the fast warming and global warming hiatus periods in the ERA-interim.

作者信息

Hu Xiaoming, Sejas Sergio A, Cai Ming, Taylor Patrick C, Deng Yi, Yang Song

机构信息

School of Atmospheric Sciences, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou, China.

Guangdong Province Key Laboratory for Climate Change and Natural Disaster Studies, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou, China.

出版信息

Clim Dyn. 2019 Feb;52(3-4):2005-2016. doi: 10.1007/s00382-018-4232-1.

Abstract

The global-mean surface temperature has experienced a rapid warming from the 1980s to early-2000s but a muted warming since, referred to as the global warming hiatus in the literature. Decadal changes in deep ocean heat uptake are thought to primarily account for the rapid warming and subsequent slowdown. Here, we examine the role of ocean heat uptake in establishing the fast warming and warming hiatus periods in the ERA-interim through a decomposition of the global-mean surface energy budget. We find the increase of carbon dioxide alone yields a nearly steady increase of the downward longwave radiation at the surface from the 1980s to the present, but neither accounts for the fast warming nor warming hiatus periods. During the global warming hiatus period, the transfer of latent heat energy from the ocean to atmosphere increases and the total downward radiative energy flux to the surface decreases due to a reduction of solar absorption caused primarily by an increase of clouds. The reduction of radiative energy into the ocean and the surface latent heat flux increase cause the ocean heat uptake to decrease and thus contribute to the slowdown of the global-mean surface warming. Our analysis also finds that in addition to a reduction of deep ocean heat uptake, the fast warming period is also driven by enhanced solar absorption due predominantly to a decrease of clouds and by enhanced longwave absorption mainly attributed to the air temperature feedback.

摘要

全球平均地表温度在20世纪80年代至21世纪初经历了快速变暖,但此后变暖趋缓,文献中称其为全球变暖停滞期。海洋深层热量吸收的年代际变化被认为是导致快速变暖和随后变暖放缓的主要原因。在此,我们通过对全球平均地表能量收支进行分解,研究了海洋热量吸收在ERA-Interim再分析资料中快速变暖和变暖停滞期形成过程中的作用。我们发现,仅二氧化碳增加就导致从20世纪80年代至今地表向下的长波辐射几乎持续增加,但这既不能解释快速变暖期,也不能解释变暖停滞期。在全球变暖停滞期,由于云层增加导致太阳吸收减少,海洋向大气的潜热能传输增加,而到达地表的总向下辐射能通量减少。进入海洋的辐射能减少和地表潜热通量增加导致海洋热量吸收减少,从而导致全球平均地表变暖放缓。我们的分析还发现,除了海洋深层热量吸收减少外,快速变暖期还主要由云层减少导致的太阳吸收增强以及主要归因于气温反馈的长波吸收增强所驱动。

https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/81f3/6800717/77ee8eaf0084/nihms-1538720-f0001.jpg

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